TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x063b…efbe

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
93
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst NFL at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST3710.8%4 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+70.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+1,009.5%+$131.23
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$28.64
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$53.88
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$19.28
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$17.95
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$14.69
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$26.14
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$31.29
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$25.48
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20.55
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$27.52
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.22
Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.97
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17.03
US x Venezuela ceasefire by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.75
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$34.21
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$93.72
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+42.7%+$11.09
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+730.8%+$361
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+336.4%+$171.45
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+70.4%+$7.73
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$218.57
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$13
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10.88
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$95.36
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+127.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+88.7%+$23.94
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+75.4%+$8.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight go the distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$43.07
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua?backed Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$27
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.