TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Green Day perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes21c28,757$6,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,068.847738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No77c5,875$4,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.84650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c5,032$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.54674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes10c4,742$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.16422.4%1 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-95.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x316b…03c5backed Yes10c4,208$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.73540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes20c4,027$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No26c2,949$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.724551.1%23 W · 22 L+9.9wins+0.22per pick29cpaid+235.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes3c2,532$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.151612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-49.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes5c1,892$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.956934.8%24 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes5c1,655$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.932722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-58.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf80f…abd0backed Yes22c1,601$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46a4…3207backed Yes6c1,373$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a4…a4babacked Yes1c1,329$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.01110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8126…9d18backed Yes58c1,292$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.6955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes8c1,215$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.418213.4%11 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe2…0d54backed Yes9c1,115$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063b…efbebacked Yes3c1,076$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes6c1,072$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.48478.5%4 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e7…1842backed Yes8c1,064$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.831010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-85.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,053$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.825679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6bc…69d1backed Yes7c1,016$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1a…bf0abacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4928…9c6bbacked Yes2c913.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes2c806.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1bd…625ebacked Yes3c705.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c695.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.181444.9%7 W · 137 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No47c655.99$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+85.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf0a…de0bbacked Yes30c551.37$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-50.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes4c541.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.92911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8660…7a93backed Yes4c502.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53da…7603backed No71c500$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1462100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes5c459.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-59.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c56…269fbacked Yes7c456.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314835.4%17 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbf8…4a50backed Yes6c429.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes4c400.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.84611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-95.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes5c400$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0db…75debacked Yes7c394.87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d88…005fbacked Yes3c373$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c343.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.542222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0013…0107backed Yes12c342.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes6c302$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.08362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30258%2 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-54%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5427…bb86backed No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes5c287.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.892213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+167.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d21…9e0fbacked Yes10c285.47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c284.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117910.1%8 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No75c269.13$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.091050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked No76c238.14$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90d…b6a1backed No42c235.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.85520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1df…7d7ebacked Yes6c207.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8158…0fe3backed Yes10c202.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd08b…f06bbacked Yes6c196.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0e…407abacked Yes10c194.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a4…4187backed No21c187.74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+369.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49bc…c5a1backed Yes14c182.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x178a…6db8backed No69c180$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f7…7bdbbacked Yes6c177.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac03…3840backed Yes12c170.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc18a…c555backed Yes6c164$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes11c155.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6518427.7%51 W · 133 L-18.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-42.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c146.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.536826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff42…6fb7backed Yes14c143.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20254%1 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-91.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No26c136.84$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.853925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes17c128.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.241553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd0…c6a7backed Yes24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.751127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e4…accabacked Yes10c100.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84dc…9607backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90cd…b6efbacked Yes29c86.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1457…fe74backed Yes58c60.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb20e…5142backed Yes34c50.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No77c45.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.415933.9%20 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0b7…45a9backed Yes33c33.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3733…0420backed No75c31.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9532…fba3backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+73.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a92…8586backed No80c25.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.035100%5 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x949d…374cbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+80.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe977…700fbacked No76c15.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a9…0c9abacked No78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 46 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.