TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Miley Cyrus perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,552 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ba3…83debacked Yes11c5,000$550 inLost-$550425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes4c1,915$85 inLost-$84.9964747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c1,066$65 inLost-$65.465815.5%9 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c863.52$22 inLost-$22.485679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes5c729.21$38 inLost-$38.35422.4%1 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-95.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes5c689$35 inLost-$34.843638.9%14 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes3c625.33$20 inLost-$19.586934.8%24 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes8c547.99$43 inLost-$43.3112827.3%35 W · 93 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c315$15 inLost-$15.06300%0 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes24c274$66 inLost-$66.3632347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes12c230$28 inLost-$28.4231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes6c221.62$14 inLost-$13.86310%0 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes14c214$30 inLost-$29.961118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-74.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc19a…b660backed Yes16c200$32 inLost-$32244.2%1 W · 23 L-5.8wins-0.24per pick28cpaid-75.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes5c199.69$10 inLost-$10.18362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc073…a9b0backed Yes16c187.44$30 inLost-$29.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa17b…8c6abacked Yes9c184.27$16 inLost-$16.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes12c174$20 inLost-$20.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes11c140$16 inLost-$15.71258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+24.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcaa2…6b1abacked Yes16c122.7$20 inLost-$20771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+64%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x497a…993fbacked Yes19c105.31$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes16c100$16 inLost-$16450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes13c88$11 inLost-$11.283447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb338…702bbacked Yes51c29.41$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No73c21$15 inWon+$5.573735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 46 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.