TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$122,681
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,681 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes7c5,950$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.8764747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes70c5,014$3,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.043464.7%22 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed No59c3,884$2,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.973839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes3c3,451$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.19422.4%1 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-95.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,152$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.695679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes46c2,555$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.014330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8210…b328backed Yes9c2,371$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.41735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes1c1,902$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.465024%12 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes30c1,894$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.5112827.3%35 W · 93 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes2c1,794$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.672722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-58.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes5c1,480$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.55310%0 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c1,350$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.925815.5%9 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes57c1,292$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.971861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf95f…f988backed Yes3c1,239$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+160.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed No39c1,188$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.181154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+47%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes1c1,142$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.713638.9%14 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,116$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.75611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-95.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked No50c1,008$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.193946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked No26c936$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.74475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+80.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes2c900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe2…b65dbacked No33c847.46$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4a6…f061backed No62c801.88$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes4c751.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0242…565dbacked No44c737.32$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No27c729$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.683735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes58c710.23$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No32c677.64$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.771020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No63c634.04$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.586934.8%24 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c581.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.912213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+167.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa405…4788backed Yes65c568.55$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x302b…4dd1backed Yes4c564.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c536.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c527.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c506.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.34911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c499.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e24…18a7backed No46c491.38$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No61c489.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.924533.3%15 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707b…69f2backed No52c473.93$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.441030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b5e…9d53backed No47c471.2$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+81.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c470.33$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.752828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf071…cbcbbacked Yes7c455.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No44c454.59$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5912634.1%43 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked No36c451.94$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+179.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes6c431.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.622653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f8…f705backed Yes51c429.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes47c421.24$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9626830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3c02…2b85backed No41c406.42$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No35c399.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8410…d4ecbacked No26c397.29$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.991030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes5c375$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.133435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed No46c358.18$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.184337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47de…61f9backed Yes3c350$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60c0…3944backed Yes54c349.74$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860f…422ebacked Yes56c348.43$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c330.66$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.3931439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No74c321.36$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.528958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x236e…02edbacked Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.69714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes70c300$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21128433.1%94 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No75c298.35$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.091070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes60c293.19$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc18a…c555backed Yes4c285$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.18110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd205…354dbacked Yes59c252.29$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb3…c25abacked Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98b4…5d76backed Yes55c240$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.225453.9%137 W · 117 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb734…fc38backed Yes48c225$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2e…1724backed Yes63c220.77$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b0…8b95backed No33c215.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a33…a6d5backed Yes74c208.15$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.05520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid+216.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x677f…c336backed Yes42c203.29$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed Yes68c200.85$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.65650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.031216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd453…75ebbacked No40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a8…64a2backed No32c200$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+65.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xacd8…a031backed Yes62c195.43$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4328…5322backed No50c195.39$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.741844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31c9…4e10backed Yes77c194.53$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes68c192.84$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes39c177$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5132347.4%153 W · 170 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes64c168$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3950%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd76f…228fbacked No61c164.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+326.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…a220backed Yes45c159.42$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb299…4a62backed Yes54c155.41$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9237556.3%211 W · 164 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffd…c854backed No34c154$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+197.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes51c153.48$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+24.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x728d…9964backed Yes68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb62f…973ebacked Yes63c142.92$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed No35c142.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.172240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff08…a723backed Yes68c140.28$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No35c134.09$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.828151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbe…7e81backed Yes40c123.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3552…c4aebacked No41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e77…e626backed Yes9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No27c117.89$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.17977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+94.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7fd…95aebacked No31c116.5$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked No46c108.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3116346%75 W · 88 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 46 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.