NFL · resolved market

Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e43bbcbd80c64de54d8c8b07f25df138ecb8e5310d0ef683f4dd6acdbe3c15c

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,691
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,691 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	4,158$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.96	61	1.6%1 W · 60 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-95.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	3c	2,726$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.16	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	1c	2,007$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.47	118	37.3%44 W · 74 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,803$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.24	567	9.9%56 W · 511 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17d2…987ebacked Yes	16c	1,031$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes	10c	932.03$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.69	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes	7c	816.69$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.87	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	-14%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	6c	809.48$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.38	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	3c	801$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.46	50	24%12 W · 38 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	4c	785.17$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	5c	690.24$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.96	107	31.8%34 W · 73 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-44%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes	6c	686.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.05	42	2.4%1 W · 41 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	8cpaid	-95.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3713…ab6fbacked Yes	5c	554.3$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.33	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes	5c	547.27$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes	5c	488.46$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	11c	450.19$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.12	69	34.8%24 W · 45 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f1…860fbacked Yes	6c	323.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	212	27.8%59 W · 153 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	7c	250$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.16	488	47.5%232 W · 256 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7b…4f70backed Yes	5c	244.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No	69c	244$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.14	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes	15c	205$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.41	315	43.2%136 W · 179 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes	16c	184.43$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.07	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	8c	135$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.20per pick	38cpaid	-74.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71ab…0af0backed Yes	16c	123.04$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aad…18f4backed Yes	35c	85.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	-6.3wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbe…7e81backed Yes	57c	35.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81a8…64a2backed No	80c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+65.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No	70c	22.44$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.74	88	37.5%33 W · 55 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	64c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.56	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd76f…228fbacked Yes	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+326.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 46 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event