NFL · resolved market
Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb963dce61782973feca149a0dee262da007e29786637961ae40741e49ad940e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d0…7967backed Yes | 26c | 11,600$2,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,958 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 9c | 5,037$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.09 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 6c | 4,083$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.33 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…f841backed No | 75c | 3,550$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 10c | 3,179$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.31 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd346…49d9backed No | 75c | 3,100$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf091…f7fcbacked No | 75c | 2,750$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17d…2031backed No | 75c | 2,200$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…1842backed Yes | 8c | 1,772$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,356$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes | 8c | 1,204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 5c | 795$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 12c | 673.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +167.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed Yes | 9c | 574.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9459…ecc1backed Yes | 3c | 543.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked No | 79c | 542.1$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.14 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 4c | 518.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 15c | 480.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 431.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 18c | 366.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 79c | 364.43$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 3c | 356$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 22c | 348.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 323.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 12c | 317.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…de53backed Yes | 32c | 311.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 12c | 307.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 305.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 305.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Yes | 9c | 302.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 112 | 37.5%42 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4424…4cc6backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 285.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x836b…9f33backed Yes | 20c | 272.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 262.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…f972backed Yes | 9c | 261.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 255.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 71c | 247.1$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 12c | 243.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 242.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 25c | 238.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 15c | 204$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 202.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4c…e915backed Yes | 15c | 189.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…0fd1backed Yes | 18c | 165.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 165.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…e859backed Yes | 9c | 149.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +174%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 137.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8febbacked Yes | 8c | 133.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 17c | 133.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfc…60debacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…1242backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 8c | 127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc1…f57ebacked Yes | 10c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b48…431fbacked Yes | 10c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f6…c8c9backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…a9b4backed Yes | 17c | 117.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…ce52backed Yes | 12c | 114$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…ceb4backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 12c | 107.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…9f65backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 11c | 97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c23…2b66backed Yes | 19c | 91.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…d6f0backed Yes | 16c | 88.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 19c | 60.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa549…c7ecbacked No | 75c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 46 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?this page
- Will Adele perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Antonio Brown perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Yes won
- Will Benson Boone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Billie Eilish perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Yes won
- Will Chappell Roan perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Charli XCX perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Christina Aguilera perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Doechii perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Ed Sheeran perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Elvis Crespo perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Foo Fighters perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Gracie Abrams perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Green Day perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Grupo Frontera perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Harry Styles perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will J Balvin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Jay-Z perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Joe Biden perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Justin Bieber perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Karol G perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Yes won
- Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Yes won
- Will Marc Anthony perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Metallica perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Miley Cyrus perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Morgan Wallen perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will No Doubt perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Oasis perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Olivia Rodrigo perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Ozuna perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Post Malone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Rauw Alejandro perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Yes won
- Will Robbie Williams perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Romeo Santos perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Rosalia perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Santana perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Tainy perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Teddy Swims perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will The Killers perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
- Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.