Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde8107b0ae18b7760bbbded3de008932cd1c22f89048f046d5a4c5ddf540673b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $437,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $415,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 281 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 0c | 23,457$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0983…9711backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd4…6a6cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 12c | 14,547$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.76 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 12,683$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.02 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,292$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 2c | 9,950$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 8c | 7,662$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.17 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156c…0a28backed Yes | 1c | 7,483$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 6,629$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 17c | 4,070$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.37 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 8c | 3,898$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.39 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 17c | 3,407$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.47 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 3,156$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.4 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…f8babacked Yes | 0c | 3,046$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 62c | 2,816$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.69 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 17c | 2,801$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.24 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 80c | 2,446$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.87 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 10c | 2,440$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.56 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 2,402$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.02 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 43c | 2,376$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.3 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,354$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 12c | 2,300$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,200$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 1c | 2,056$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…6c50backed Yes | 19c | 1,813$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,601$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.61 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 18c | 1,590$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.62 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,548$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…d8a0backed Yes | 33c | 1,495$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.2 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…34edbacked Yes | 42c | 1,480$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 4c | 1,324$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 76c | 1,269$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.89 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…5596backed Yes | 33c | 1,212$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,212$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.07 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…f31cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,211$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…30f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,162$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,095$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…5d81backed Yes | 1c | 1,029$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a58…7e08backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 9.3%13 W · 127 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +642.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fda…147ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes | 39c | 994.98$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.09 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…c8e8backed Yes | 25c | 973.43$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.33 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…139ebacked Yes | 2c | 950.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 13c | 941$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 28c | 929.15$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.14 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes | 14c | 899.06$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.87 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…a843backed No | 56c | 877.81$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 871.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 17c | 861.53$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 90 | 12.2%11 W · 79 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…5844backed Yes | 24c | 849.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 34c | 841.58$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.1 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 72c | 832.06$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.99 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 18c | 830$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 31c | 828.99$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.22 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 35c | 819.99$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.43 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 5c | 799.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 26c | 777.94$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.29 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…49cebacked Yes | 37c | 775.24$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 51c | 770.58$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.41 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 17c | 756.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.66 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a5…0026backed Yes | 17c | 721.2$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 709.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…f6ebbacked Yes | 15c | 707.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 702.28$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.06 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 15c | 645.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbc…1782backed Yes | 16c | 626.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 18c | 619.53$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c8…2257backed Yes | 20c | 615.02$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.36 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Yes | 16c | 613.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…f779backed Yes | 8c | 605$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f2…dc22backed Yes | 16c | 598.89$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 30c | 581.18$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…3036backed Yes | 39c | 553.26$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 545.7$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.14 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 536.35$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.78 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 528.72$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.13 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…e805backed Yes | 11c | 525.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 20c | 521.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed Yes | 18c | 503.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 42c | 499.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.45 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 74c | 499.92$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…b42bbacked Yes | 38c | 495.63$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 26c | 473.21$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.77 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…0f8abacked Yes | 15c | 420.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 24c | 417.96$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 15c | 412.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769a…0244backed Yes | 41c | 400$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 24c | 399.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…0b80backed Yes | 13c | 396.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…9bbabacked Yes | 18c | 394.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes | 36c | 392.94$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 85 | 27.1%23 W · 62 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 18c | 389.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 36c | 360.69$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1f…cb99backed Yes | 16c | 359.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.