Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf846ea1df7ec94ee5617bc4527ac969a8ba5ae1466173df2d95aba9a41fb8854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $275,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $238,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e8d…1b71backed Yes | 0c | 40,470$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 10,869$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.87 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…34edbacked Yes | 7c | 10,482$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 6,975$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,531$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…d8a0backed Yes | 1c | 5,986$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…ad79backed Yes | 0c | 5,421$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 6c | 5,296$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.72 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 1c | 3,802$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 3,257$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.71 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 2,932$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 2c | 2,854$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 2,673$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 2,490$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…6ca1backed Yes | 1c | 2,421$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c8…2257backed Yes | 7c | 2,321$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…d28cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,152$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +233.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,995$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,987$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,951$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,916$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,567$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…966cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,532$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,090$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,081$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…d7b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,064$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…1c85backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 937.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 865.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 8c | 799.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 6c | 673.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…8489backed Yes | 17c | 589.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes | 8c | 548.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 96 | 20.8%20 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 6c | 504.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 18.4%27 W · 120 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…e1e1backed Yes | 17c | 302.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 6c | 265$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…30f4backed Yes | 7c | 244.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 5c | 239.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 217.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…b48bbacked Yes | 12c | 152.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3c…b892backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 120.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 80c | 55.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 63 | 81%51 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 75cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.