Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa33a42342b88f48ac6e2c079dd8543e78a11e59339fc56219d24783f10609f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $377,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $382,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 323 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 77c | 20,343$15,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,691.34 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 28c | 14,678$4,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,536.89 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…0da7backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 14c | 6,808$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,843.73 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…f31cbacked Yes | 37c | 6,100$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,842.04 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 14c | 5,328$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,577.91 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 42c | 4,101$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.87 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…bf7bbacked Yes | 74c | 4,047$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.01 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 3,797$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,173.49 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 46c | 3,067$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.12 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…529abacked No | 71c | 2,995$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 55c | 2,952$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.99 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…e375backed No | 75c | 2,841$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 2,731$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.55 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…dde9backed No | 32c | 2,600$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.45 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 75c | 2,556$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.83 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 37c | 2,500$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.99 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 61c | 2,407$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.41 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 46c | 2,379$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.54 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 45c | 2,312$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.09 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 26c | 2,309$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.23 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 13c | 2,306$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.22 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 58c | 2,155$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.3 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 61c | 2,135$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.94 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 26c | 2,123$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.84 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 48c | 2,074$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.45 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…9a15backed Yes | 9c | 1,967$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…8c18backed No | 16c | 1,838$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.06 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…3559backed Yes | 33c | 1,804$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.86 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bf…ecc3backed No | 77c | 1,704$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 56c | 1,611$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.29 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8949…5e21backed No | 60c | 1,592$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.66 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,566$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.47 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 10c | 1,526$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.63 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 78c | 1,505$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…0b80backed Yes | 24c | 1,499$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.56 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 69c | 1,450$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.89 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…952ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 13cpaid | +308.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…afb0backed Yes | 21c | 1,348$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 37c | 1,316$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.32 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 31c | 1,241$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.4 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…5596backed No | 21c | 1,209$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…8538backed Yes | 64c | 1,200$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 1,142$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.12 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 34c | 1,136$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.93 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 1,112$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.74 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…06edbacked Yes | 15c | 1,100$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked No | 27c | 1,099$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 44c | 1,065$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.24 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked No | 9c | 1,056$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 22c | 1,055$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.72 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…ca34backed Yes | 15c | 1,051$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +229.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 38c | 1,046$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.28 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.58 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…b14ebacked No | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1e…90f7backed No | 61c | 964.29$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.21 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes | 16c | 961.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.57 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 48c | 950.96$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.31 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 49c | 899.99$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.66 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 15c | 896.31$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.43 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 13c | 895.54$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 2c | 881.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 30c | 870.44$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.44 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…747abacked Yes | 54c | 845.1$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.78 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…139ebacked Yes | 37c | 843.89$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…fb00backed Yes | 79c | 835.27$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.41 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 24c | 830$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.37 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Yes | 61c | 804.31$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.31 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1606…0ba6backed Yes | 29c | 797.59$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.66 | 100 | 21%21 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 38c | 795.86$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.88 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 44c | 788.54$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.98 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…393bbacked Yes | 27c | 777.37$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.48 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 27c | 761.9$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.64 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked No | 60c | 749.98$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.49 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…f8d1backed Yes | 24c | 730.92$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 8c | 705.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.56 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 24c | 700$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.5 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Yes | 14c | 699.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.73 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…1216backed Yes | 25c | 683.68$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.68 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x996c…b6ecbacked Yes | 66c | 683$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 60c | 679.88$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.86 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 14c | 646.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.94 | 147 | 18.4%27 W · 120 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…78fabacked Yes | 47c | 637.45$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.98 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 630.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.18 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fd…9028backed Yes | 63c | 621.28$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.87 | 121 | 12.4%15 W · 106 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…2561backed No | 71c | 599.99$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5359…6b35backed Yes | 75c | 599.55$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 40c | 552.52$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.98 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 10c | 502.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.59 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 8c | 501.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 13c | 500.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.18 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe183…005dbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 69c | 500$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.03 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b9…25dfbacked Yes | 10c | 484.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.42 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa458…7141backed No | 60c | 480.37$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 48c | 480.3$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.96 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…34edbacked Yes | 15c | 459.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes | 42c | 456.5$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.11 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.