Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x395841a8a53a888319aec0230610e8044f257131a0311a2c2c687265d71fdaae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $411,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $324,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $411,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 23,654$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.36 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 18c | 23,644$4,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,189.61 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…fb52backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 22c | 18,097$3,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,964.5 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 7c | 11,307$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.5 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 7c | 10,716$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.98 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,272$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.96 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,869$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.94 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 6,838$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.55 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 5,798$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.14 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 5,355$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 9c | 4,447$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.17 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…f31cbacked Yes | 9c | 4,330$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,310$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 1c | 4,301$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 17c | 4,101$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.16 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…06edbacked Yes | 2c | 4,100$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…0a3cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,750$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 3,250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.24 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…c99cbacked No | 71c | 3,100$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes | 8c | 2,600$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 4c | 2,598$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed No | 73c | 2,561$1,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.52 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2e…cc54backed Yes | 3c | 2,483$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 10c | 2,408$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.21 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 6c | 2,366$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.82 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 22c | 2,303$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.59 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,299$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.72 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,112$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.57 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,085$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.21 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 7c | 1,881$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 147 | 18.4%27 W · 120 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 11c | 1,765$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.49 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1606…0ba6backed Yes | 14c | 1,662$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.41 | 100 | 21%21 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,639$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,615$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca1…7181backed Yes | 40c | 1,600$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 24c | 1,532$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.96 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 42c | 1,424$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…e375backed No | 67c | 1,400$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,375$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…ca34backed Yes | 10c | 1,317$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +229.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…1216backed Yes | 11c | 1,317$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes | 6c | 1,300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 96 | 20.8%20 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…9218backed Yes | 10c | 1,280$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…f181backed Yes | 3c | 1,149$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,110$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.72 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 12c | 1,076$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.71 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…88d7backed Yes | 6c | 1,037$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…bf7bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,034$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…952ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,025$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 13cpaid | +308.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…1e80backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…548bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 5c | 999.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 10c | 996.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 13c | 977.84$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6e…d673backed Yes | 5c | 975.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 952.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 8c | 940.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…747abacked Yes | 6c | 912.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 8c | 899.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 24c | 893.04$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.12 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 3c | 846.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 7c | 830$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…e805backed Yes | 11c | 826.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 4c | 750$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…7834backed Yes | 5c | 724.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5359…6b35backed Yes | 45c | 690$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes | 17c | 684$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…41bfbacked Yes | 30c | 672.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 33c | 647.34$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.85 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…7cecbacked Yes | 4c | 638.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed No | 80c | 626.13$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.13 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…2693backed Yes | 5c | 621.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1e…90f7backed Yes | 33c | 617.27$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.29 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 579.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…e737backed Yes | 22c | 578.74$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…db4ebacked Yes | 3c | 556.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…e1d7backed Yes | 4c | 551.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…e152backed No | 80c | 551.04$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 13c | 549.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…24c1backed Yes | 10c | 548.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3d9fbacked Yes | 2c | 545$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799e…2d5cbacked Yes | 4c | 540.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 9c | 536.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 21c | 532.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 13c | 530$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f3…d210backed Yes | 9c | 529.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…6bbcbacked Yes | 6c | 526.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…b48bbacked Yes | 7c | 514$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 9c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b9…25dfbacked Yes | 4c | 491.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2265…4130backed Yes | 4c | 490.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67fa…9e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 482.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a72…a524backed Yes | 6c | 478.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 18c | 475.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.