Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa54de0bebec1848cb0677514450cd77a1b59ffaa65ce1fac1eda640739d03b5d

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $521,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $396,672

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $521,635 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	3c	24,121$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.89	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	16,135$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.22	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	15,358$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.94	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	13,135$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	0c	11,901$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.51	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Yes	7c	10,359$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.83	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59e…06edbacked Yes	0c	10,100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	9,682$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.53	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…3c35backed Yes	1c	9,439$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.56	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	1c	8,150$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.61	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	7,812$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.34	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	7,751$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.18	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	7,607$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.16	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	1c	7,120$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.05	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa9…c8e8backed Yes	2c	6,900$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.96	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+89.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	5,951$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.55	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	5,147$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	1c	5,056$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	2c	4,451$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.2	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	3c	4,101$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.92	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	4,022$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.85	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	3,805$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.94	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes	11c	3,683$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.92	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	2c	3,147$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.92	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e2…1a63backed Yes	2c	3,143$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd921…737bbacked Yes	1c	2,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe07f…34edbacked Yes	4c	2,390$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.85	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	7c	2,328$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.03	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	4c	2,229$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.89	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	4c	2,149$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.92	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	2c	2,120$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes	2c	2,000$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	1c	1,946$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.57	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	5c	1,928$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.99	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8930…393bbacked Yes	5c	1,905$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes	7c	1,810$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.07	85	27.1%23 W · 62 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes	2c	1,659$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a3…d653backed Yes	1c	1,579$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.25	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,508$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa00…eba1backed Yes	1c	1,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	7c	1,497$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	5c	1,492$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	1c	1,440$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa970…d60dbacked Yes	4c	1,400$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.55	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+51%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes	1c	1,375$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76c0…7cecbacked Yes	1c	1,364$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf815…ca34backed Yes	14c	1,355$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.41	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+229.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3570…2023backed Yes	2c	1,293$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.9	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c3…1440backed Yes	13c	1,267$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.25	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6496…8e19backed Yes	4c	1,205$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	178	17.4%31 W · 147 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…747abacked Yes	4c	1,108$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.35	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	1c	1,095$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	2c	1,052$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.86	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,036$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbebb…28b8backed Yes	2c	1,014$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.95	67	22.4%15 W · 52 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	1,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa110…78fabacked Yes	2c	989.8$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.34	106	31.1%33 W · 73 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	946.11$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.72	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	3c	945.83$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.92	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	1c	940.87$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	3c	939.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.25	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	5c	939.03$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.71	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	899.3$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.67	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba87…dfa9backed Yes	1c	865.24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x939b…9cd7backed Yes	3c	830$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.22	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ea…6bbcbacked Yes	4c	820$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	2c	805.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	796.39$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97cd…9dc0backed Yes	4c	786.84$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c73…44f4backed Yes	5c	772.43$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.39	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-56%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	50c	770.41$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$383.32	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	1c	769.7$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa6e…d673backed Yes	4c	760.66$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.02	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	7cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a72…a524backed Yes	5c	733.1$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	39c	700$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.9	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5574…b48bbacked Yes	5c	652.94$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c12…b6f2backed Yes	2c	641.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	2c	637.69$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec91…6c50backed Yes	3c	636.76$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58d7…10f6backed Yes	3c	630.47$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x314d…9f7dbacked Yes	4c	629.09$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.18per pick	48cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e1e…0f8abacked Yes	3c	615.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.41	62	27.4%17 W · 45 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+63.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes	3c	610.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	156	31.4%49 W · 107 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	4c	604.4$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.34	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes	7c	600$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.3	116	18.1%21 W · 95 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes	4c	600$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Yes	10c	595.29$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.77	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+43%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d8…3a90backed Yes	3c	574.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	5c	570.86$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.97	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes	2c	532.61$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x769a…0244backed Yes	3c	531.29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.55	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	15cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	3c	526.58$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	5c	499.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes	2c	499.65$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	179	24.6%44 W · 135 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	486.53$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes	2c	440$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	140	50%70 W · 70 L	+8.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf787…3559backed Yes	5c	440$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e4…92a6backed Yes	4c	434.05$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea37…f7b1backed Yes	3c	424.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?this page
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?Yes won
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event