Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e97824035dc7a94cec89ae4706a21adb1f2d6d59ea0454b349240f15acb4dd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $486,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $458,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $486,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…0abbbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…05a2backed Yes | 0c | 26,333$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…eba1backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…06edbacked Yes | 0c | 19,856$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 0c | 11,469$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc855…1994backed Yes | 0c | 11,207$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 11,001$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…bbfbbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x621f…b9dfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…8769backed Yes | 10c | 7,351$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.64 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…34edbacked Yes | 7c | 5,934$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,414$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 18c | 5,328$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.77 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 6c | 4,341$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.63 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…a548backed Yes | 5c | 3,703$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,274$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.96 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 2,106$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.45 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 15c | 2,017$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.96 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,994$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.97 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 17c | 1,980$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.6 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 7c | 1,963$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.43 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe183…005dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,761$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 75c | 1,684$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.23 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f21…6fb5backed No | 76c | 1,544$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c8…2257backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…5596backed Yes | 28c | 1,450$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d4…63c7backed No | 78c | 1,355$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed Yes | 18c | 1,215$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…d8a0backed Yes | 13c | 1,200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.01 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…e1e1backed Yes | 12c | 1,192$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 8c | 988.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 2c | 966.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 20c | 955.85$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…4362backed Yes | 25c | 950$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 90 | 15.6%14 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 3c | 928.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…d273backed Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 25c | 881$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.25 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…1440backed Yes | 8c | 870$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Yes | 7c | 825.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b87…0fa6backed Yes | 10c | 825.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 11c | 794.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 14c | 735.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…3036backed Yes | 7c | 700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…8046backed Yes | 15c | 689.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +817.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 12c | 634.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 8c | 634.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 8c | 609.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 8c | 585$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 77c | 579.97$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.05 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 9c | 527$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 3c | 503.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…a249backed Yes | 5c | 480$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 7c | 453.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b68dbacked Yes | 9c | 453.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…acf8backed Yes | 7c | 434.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 12c | 410.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 12c | 400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769a…0244backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 69c | 368.86$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.12 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 367.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…7fc6backed No | 77c | 363.34$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.34 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 4c | 361.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 9c | 350$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 29c | 349.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 29c | 345.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 28c | 337.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…30f4backed Yes | 6c | 328.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 21c | 313.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd213…cd2cbacked Yes | 17c | 301.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 301.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c1…10b8backed Yes | 7c | 270.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac14…f155backed Yes | 15c | 268.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes | 20c | 268.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…966cbacked Yes | 9c | 266.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes | 16c | 251.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…f8d1backed Yes | 16c | 235.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 9c | 229.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Yes | 9c | 223.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…9bbabacked Yes | 6c | 207.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…747abacked Yes | 19c | 205.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 16c | 203.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4638…489fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…fb00backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6faa…787bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…51c2backed Yes | 15c | 179.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…afb0backed Yes | 26c | 179.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 13c | 171.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7880…5da8backed Yes | 15c | 170.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…b76ebacked Yes | 12c | 170.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.