TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfe73…1c5f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NFL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 53 out of 100; worst Tweets at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST3312.1%4 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$142.97
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$243
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$313
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$88.62
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+125.5%+$62.74
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+25%+$45
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$67.01
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+433.9%+$260.33
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$215.51
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+541%+$811.57
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nets vs. Sunsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$290
Bucks vs. 76ersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Kings vs. Knicksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Trail Blazers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+222.6%+$333.87
All 4 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+88.7%+$203.62
Will Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$483.88
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$596Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+38.9%+$231.59
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$702Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+212.5%+$1,492.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rangers vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,028Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+72.4%+$1,468.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+58.7%+$58.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$450
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$70
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.