Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8075c371499b9a42b89a60f76f8065d9ee27461028efa5360401fccf6e949b34

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,467,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,085,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,467,906 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 969 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf04a…2851backed Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	0%0 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	50,440$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.07	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	36,482$3,867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,867.08	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…825ebacked Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…2beabacked Yes	30c	29,165$8,763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,762.66	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	23c	19,309$4,462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,461.75	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	31c	16,717$5,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,112.33	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	15c	15,416$2,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,365.85	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	25c	15,105$3,708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,708.28	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	30c	13,837$4,172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,171.72	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8852…d180backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	22c	11,769$2,639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,638.72	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	21c	11,118$2,354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,354.28	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	23c	10,766$2,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,510.22	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	5c	10,221$527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.61	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b2…62fdbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	13c	10,000$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,299.99	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	28c	8,535$2,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,375.07	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	41c	8,373$3,396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,395.91	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	24c	8,214$1,945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,944.76	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes	38c	7,404$2,777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,776.69	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	26c	7,370$1,949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,948.81	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb4…ae22backed Yes	41c	7,145$2,895 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,895.28	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	56c	7,109$3,983 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,126.07	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	43c	6,891$2,991 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,990.52	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	17c	6,841$1,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,187.22	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9331…4b41backed Yes	40c	6,826$2,730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,730.39	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+43.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes	16c	6,757$1,086 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,086.26	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes	35c	6,750$2,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,365.98	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf22c…5c89backed No	60c	6,750$4,037 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,712.44	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked No	64c	6,576$4,239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,336.58	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	6,480$5,106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,373.97	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	39c	6,290$2,451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,450.83	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	10c	6,256$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.77	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	18c	5,649$1,029 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,028.57	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	18c	5,522$983 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$983.2	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	28c	5,499$1,518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,517.96	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	27c	5,406$1,486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,485.96	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	13c	5,405$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.66	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	22c	5,329$1,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,154.39	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	29c	5,205$1,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,529.99	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	0c	5,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	4,837$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.55	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	38c	4,746$1,789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,789.43	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	13c	4,711$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$614.14	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	22c	4,623$1,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	32c	4,620$1,498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,498.2	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe209…e60dbacked Yes	21c	4,089$849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$849.49	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	30c	4,016$1,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,216.11	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	4,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	15c	4,000$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.14	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bdd…e736backed Yes	21c	3,929$827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$827.16	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Yes	10c	3,816$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	18c	3,813$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e100backed No	76c	3,639$2,761 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$877.92	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	39c	3,560$1,403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,402.76	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	28c	3,522$976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$976	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	9c	3,446$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.88	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7266…34bfbacked Yes	30c	3,387$1,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,023.95	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	28c	3,353$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.26	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	24c	3,310$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790.94	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e36…c05cbacked No	60c	3,282$1,969 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,312.9	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+71%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	11c	3,250$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.5	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	13c	3,243$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.25	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	16c	3,173$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.22	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes	11c	3,115$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.16	91	17.6%16 W · 75 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…54b3backed Yes	23c	3,074$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	19c	3,024$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.79	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	29c	3,000$880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$880	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	16c	2,970$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	18c	2,955$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	18c	2,935$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.39	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	25c	2,905$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$716	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	23c	2,892$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$654.99	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67a7…1facbacked Yes	15c	2,837$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.22	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c33…ce95backed No	79c	2,826$2,235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$591.32	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	20c	2,824$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.68	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15b5…5122backed Yes	21c	2,756$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.26	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebd…95f3backed Yes	15c	2,700$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	22c	2,682$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.46	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb8…3fe7backed Yes	25c	2,676$671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$670.91	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	21c	2,660$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	14c	2,600$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.99	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	67c	2,553$1,711 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$842.8	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	20c	2,500$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	13c	2,500$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	23c	2,500$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.99	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	11c	2,453$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.34	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	15c	2,444$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.46	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	2,424$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.12	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	2,408$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.32	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	9c	2,382$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.4	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	23c	2,377$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.28	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	30c	2,229$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa0…fcc4backed Yes	10c	2,200$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.99	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	6c	2,190$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.2	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6388…7622backed Yes	20c	2,170$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.29	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	10c	2,162$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.1	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes	14c	2,154$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.1	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	23c	2,135$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.62	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event