Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x989afb08f0f05ffe882c4d47e5133deca94382e215debcf33b1616eb7d34e6d3

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $624,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $292,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $624,247 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	3c	43,668$1,244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,243.52	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	43,268$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.65	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	40,099$1,131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,131.45	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f0…9d6bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	18,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	14,249$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.36	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	12,229$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.88	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,442$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	2c	9,699$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.52	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	9,021$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.32	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	7,633$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.75	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	7,465$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.06	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	7,380$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.36	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	5c	6,254$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.09	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	3c	6,053$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.69	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,046$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.34	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	5,898$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	2c	4,677$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.37	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	4,604$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.93	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes	1c	4,584$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	2c	4,461$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.88	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	5c	4,448$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.14	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	4,333$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.03	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	3,997$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	3c	3,834$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	3,775$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.55	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,639$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.06	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	1c	3,423$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.47	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b0f…6867backed Yes	3c	3,363$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-50%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	3,180$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.62	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	3,159$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.16	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	3,056$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.83	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	2c	3,038$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.41	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	2c	3,017$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.49	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	3c	3,000$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	3c	2,997$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd9…1dc7backed Yes	1c	2,942$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.01	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,804$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.14	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	2,740$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.13	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	2c	2,692$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.53	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	5c	2,569$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.15	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	2,511$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	2,276$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.47	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	2,213$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.98	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	2c	2,048$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.49	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x799e…2d5cbacked Yes	3c	1,799$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	2c	1,763$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.87	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…ee52backed Yes	1c	1,639$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	3c	1,550$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,480$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf703…9f55backed Yes	1c	1,369$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	2c	1,327$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.84	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes	3c	1,300$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe201…3f41backed Yes	3c	1,235$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.61	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65d4…fb31backed Yes	2c	1,233$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.09	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+230.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,216$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.34	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	4c	1,200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.4	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	4c	1,200$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.8	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	4c	1,188$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x915b…2729backed Yes	4c	1,092$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	122	18.9%23 W · 99 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	1c	1,057$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5660…27e6backed Yes	2c	1,036$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	1,026$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.49	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	2c	1,025$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,004$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.41	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	4c	1,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.02	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	1,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.71	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	2c	999.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49f9…66d1backed Yes	5c	977.59$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.91	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes	3c	923.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	58	5.2%3 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Yes	3c	915$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.19	108	16.7%18 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	853.92$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.35	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	3c	800.12$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.83	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb742…8cb0backed Yes	3c	792.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes	3c	727$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.87	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ccb…05a2backed Yes	2c	720.51$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e4…f945backed Yes	6c	700$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc449…e51bbacked Yes	3c	688.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec4f…24cfbacked Yes	2c	663.77$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6a…8777backed Yes	2c	650$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	2c	616.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe9…b611backed Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	3c	598.66$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0912…42ffbacked Yes	3c	592.35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2265…4130backed Yes	3c	589.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe553…e95dbacked Yes	4c	555.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	3c	550.58$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.53	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	4c	530.2$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.09	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdffa…1ea3backed Yes	3c	519.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60be…f181backed Yes	4c	515.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	3c	510$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	3c	509.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe218…f33bbacked Yes	4c	505.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	3c	503.63$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea0…a726backed Yes	2c	503.54$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa88c…c242backed Yes	3c	501.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-63.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event