TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x256b…e0d3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
123
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: College Football, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 51 out of 100; worst NFL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1056.7%7 W · 98 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 105 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.28
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$34.48
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$110
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$110
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$125
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$144.69
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$41.83
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$19.92
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$18.19
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$23.22
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$16.63
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$21.24
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$13.96
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$15.3
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$15.7
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$65.53
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$129.37
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$204.11
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$110.08
Showing 25 of 105 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Toledo vs. Louisvillebacked Louisville · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+26.6%+$21.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$311.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will XRP reach $3.7 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.