UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6a745c95f5cc38197f9136f96d0b3498d3d4e05c6b3c4653cbaff2f0c75897e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf353…b287backed No | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 72c | 755.29$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.55 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 73c | 561.89$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.18 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…e0d3backed Yes | 27c | 555.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 70c | 533.83$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.68 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 66c | 499.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aea…badebacked Yes | 29c | 310.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.47 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Yes | 34c | 249.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbac…d62ebacked Yes | 26c | 135$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…3c98backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778b…5aa2backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Yes | 26c | 77.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Yes | 26c | 76.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…aa80backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Yes | 26c | 65.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 70c | 52.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +168.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Yes | 28c | 49.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +40%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…badabacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Yes | 38c | 29.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 74c | 27.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…547dbacked No | 62c | 26.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card)Tsarukyan won
- Will Arman Tsarukyan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Dan Hooker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.