UFC · resolved market
O/U 3.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39f9e338289abcb0b851eb43d34cf7e1120fc0a5c76fc9630883196f60782a83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 53c | 3,565$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.65 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…47c8backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…91e4backed Over | 51c | 980.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…e0e1backed Under | 58c | 936.3$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 47c | 785.1$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.44 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efc…478fbacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Over | 47c | 167.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…b1e7backed Over | 48c | 146.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c1…3ac2backed Over | 47c | 119.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cf…cb94backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Over | 33c | 74.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 50c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…c956backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 229 | 53.3%122 W · 107 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…5fd4backed Over | 52c | 38.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 52c | 23.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 3.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card)Tsarukyan won
- Will Arman Tsarukyan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Dan Hooker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.