UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x940426f7132072689f50c1b933e6086491bf2cfa271ed6a0cacc899f407d0cd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75b0…b60abacked No | 71c | 1,400$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…3de0backed No | 70c | 1,021$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.1 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Yes | 29c | 963.11$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.3 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 30c | 755$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.5 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 34c | 749.38$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.69 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…c3f0backed No | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…90ddbacked Yes | 35c | 491.98$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 66c | 220.82$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…fce8backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…49c5backed Yes | 29c | 172.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 36c | 166.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…83e8backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…82babacked No | 67c | 149.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed No | 70c | 142.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…e660backed No | 65c | 125.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x352e…6f9cbacked Yes | 40c | 125.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…d1b8backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…f4f1backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…0fbbbacked No | 72c | 48.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb36…eb17backed No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f6…5e72backed No | 65c | 33.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…1748backed No | 73c | 32.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…aa80backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…da4abacked No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card)Tsarukyan won
- Will Arman Tsarukyan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Dan Hooker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.