TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x010b…81dc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
165
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Movies, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT4944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
UFC — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Bekzat Almakhan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Jeisla Chaves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.2
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+332.4%+$61.5
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alexander Volkov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Jared Gordon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Jonathan Micallef · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.9
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Jai Herbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+167.9%+$18.8
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Kyle Nelson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
UFC Fight Night: Danny Silva vs. Kurtis Campbell (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Danny Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$33
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Rob Font · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Kavanagh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+55.8%+$17.89
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+244.8%+$63.9
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Geoff Neal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$33
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Ige · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$22.39
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Delija · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$22.8
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$12
UFC Fight Night: Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier del Valle (Featherweight, Prelims)backed del Valle · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$46.8
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Bautista · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+81.8%+$44.99
UFC Fight Night: Farid Basharat vs. Jean Matsumoto (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Matsumoto · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$12.35
UFC Fight Night: Javid Basharat vs. Gianni Vazquez (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Basharat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+25%+$10
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Ruffy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+96.1%+$24.5
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Teixeira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+55.6%+$6.24
UFC 325: Elekana vs. Tafa (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Tafa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
UFC 325: Elliott vs. Micallef (Welterweight, Early Prelims)backed Micallef · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+81.8%+$13.5
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT4837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$24
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.04
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$103.65
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$20.86
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.58
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.49
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$620.05
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$426.41
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$64
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$29.6
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+124.7%+$133.2
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$256
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$25.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$33.43
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$679Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+68.4%+$464.43
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+704.6%+$919.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+435.1%+$365.9
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$279
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$158.5
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$152.8
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+52.2%+$36
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+62.2%+$57.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 5-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+100%+$100
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$35.71
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$102.5
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+294.7%+$234.84
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+64.7%+$78.6
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+39.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.34
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$14.8
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56
Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$34.96
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$14.06
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$147.09
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-78.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+142.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+72.4%+$12.6
SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+212.5%+$33.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick27cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$112
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.8
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$16.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$17.7
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+212.5%+$34
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$11.7
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-02-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$26.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+203%+$67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+112.8%+$15.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$47.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakinabacked Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$13.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$21.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$50.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$24.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.81
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.