Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf57750a6e12f1a0e63ef45cca20af1637a1054779d35866e4694b097c0951d85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $787,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $707,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $787,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 15c | 30,734$4,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,625.88 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 75c | 29,045$21,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,263.61 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 10c | 26,060$2,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.34 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…06e1backed Yes | 2c | 21,500$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152d…e7bfbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 0c | 17,944$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3321…fefbbacked Yes | 11c | 14,075$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +233.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes | 8c | 13,851$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…f91abacked Yes | 18c | 12,476$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 15c | 11,592$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.37 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed Yes | 10c | 11,218$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.82 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +349.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x290b…d7b5backed Yes | 13c | 10,100$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 4c | 9,997$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.94 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,058$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 39c | 8,467$3,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,278.8 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,378$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.95 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 44c | 5,938$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,306.08 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,830$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcac…af56backed Yes | 1c | 5,540$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 5,209$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.62 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…8448backed Yes | 29c | 4,668$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…2d1dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,590$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 65c | 4,252$2,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.95 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 3,322$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.03 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,262$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…ddd3backed Yes | 17c | 3,085$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 16c | 3,080$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,587.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…30e4backed Yes | 4c | 3,075$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Yes | 10c | 3,072$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…e51bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,536$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 53c | 2,526$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.5 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…7508backed Yes | 51c | 2,490$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 13c | 2,392$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.31 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 2c | 2,011$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…07c0backed Yes | 51c | 2,000$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 47c | 1,973$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.1 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…15a8backed No | 80c | 1,889$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.17 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,883$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…f4b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,731$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…0a03backed Yes | 1c | 1,591$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes | 20c | 1,535$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.05 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa236…73f6backed No | 21c | 1,533$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c300backed Yes | 7c | 1,502$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes | 22c | 1,312$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.86 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…3e09backed Yes | 2c | 1,178$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5029…bdb4backed Yes | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d99…b61fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,023$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +641.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 7c | 998.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 2c | 975.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…72e6backed Yes | 3c | 914.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 776.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…bdf0backed Yes | 3c | 754.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde75…8596backed Yes | 18c | 751.35$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 71c | 747.28$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.77 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked No | 62c | 722.37$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1517…5b34backed Yes | 74c | 699.99$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 8c | 687.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 12c | 629.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…7a22backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked Yes | 51c | 550$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…2ad2backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 8c | 487.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…1e2ebacked No | 31c | 440$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 416.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 7c | 340$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…90a9backed Yes | 4c | 336.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d33…065cbacked Yes | 9c | 336.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…b3a0backed No | 61c | 316.61$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…eda2backed No | 49c | 304.76$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.43 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed Yes | 22c | 302.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…083ebacked Yes | 8c | 300.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…9665backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…0290backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x400c…781ebacked Yes | 14c | 289.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8f…c01dbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ec…2e06backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…f6b6backed Yes | 15c | 271.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d350backed Yes | 34c | 258.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…9e8abacked Yes | 25c | 255$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d9…a756backed Yes | 18c | 230$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549a…c866backed Yes | 35c | 216.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ed…a147backed Yes | 10c | 215.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 9c | 215$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…3305backed Yes | 35c | 214.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…3dd3backed Yes | 9c | 208.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed No | 47c | 200.32$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…ca5dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…f681backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…d705backed Yes | 38c | 197.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.