TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$787,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$707,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $787,728 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes15c30,734$4,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,625.8828021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed No75c29,045$21,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,263.6117231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes10c26,060$2,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,559.3437745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa87d…06e1backed Yes2c21,500$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152d…e7bfbacked Yes0c20,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes0c17,944$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4523411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3321…fefbbacked Yes11c14,075$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+233.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes8c13,851$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.81216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x494e…f91abacked Yes18c12,476$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes15c11,592$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.3763835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed Yes10c11,218$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.823729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+349.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x290b…d7b5backed Yes13c10,100$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6408…c7aebacked Yes4c9,997$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.945024%12 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c9,058$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.681,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes39c8,467$3,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,278.887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes4c8,378$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.956622.7%15 W · 51 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick4cpaid+272.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x70ed…10b4backed No44c5,938$2,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,306.086625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb83f…b17ebacked Yes3c5,830$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcac…af56backed Yes1c5,540$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c5,209$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.626785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed No43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8504450%22 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes16c5,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8007123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31d…8448backed Yes29c4,668$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.5940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf81…2d1dbacked Yes1c4,590$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No65c4,252$2,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.957163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c3,322$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.0364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c3,262$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6001…ddd3backed Yes17c3,085$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02c1…2e70backed No16c3,080$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,587.22540%10 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae8b…30e4backed Yes4c3,075$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Yes10c3,072$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc449…e51bbacked Yes1c2,536$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes53c2,526$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d7a…7508backed Yes51c2,490$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes13c2,392$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.313910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+155.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c6b4backed Yes2c2,011$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.744413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes2c2,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-75.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…07c0backed Yes51c2,000$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes47c1,973$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.158126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0154…15a8backed No80c1,889$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.173953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c1,883$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.682125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cdd…f4b2backed Yes1c1,731$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d77…0a03backed Yes1c1,591$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes20c1,535$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.053030%9 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa236…73f6backed No21c1,533$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.331050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c300backed Yes7c1,502$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+59.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes22c1,312$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.861921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9973…3e09backed Yes2c1,178$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5029…bdb4backed Yes43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d99…b61fbacked Yes1c1,023$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x298b…066fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+641.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5604564.4%29 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes8c1,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.027810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes7c998.39$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.293998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes2c975.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.551533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-48%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x838d…72e6backed Yes3c914.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c776.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.682999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1002…bdf0backed Yes3c754.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde75…8596backed Yes18c751.35$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.241618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No71c747.28$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.777330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x433e…86fcbacked No62c722.37$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1517…5b34backed Yes74c699.99$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5211323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.31per pick54cpaid-66.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes8c687.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f0c…f073backed Yes12c629.32$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd430…7a22backed Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x010b…81dcbacked Yes51c550$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2794837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd147…2ad2backed Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2703020%6 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes8c487.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3934848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8367…1e2ebacked No31c440$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes8c416.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6231523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes7c340$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.81437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5181…90a9backed Yes4c336.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d33…065cbacked Yes9c336.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30100%0 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe2c1…b3a0backed No61c316.61$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.36875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+40.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fee…eda2backed No49c304.76$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.432263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed Yes22c302.96$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.025637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9d1…083ebacked Yes8c300.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e21…9665backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21170%0 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8c…0290backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2810…1131backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+147.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452948.3%14 W · 15 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+36.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x400c…781ebacked Yes14c289.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8f…c01dbacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00ec…2e06backed Yes9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe928…f6b6backed Yes15c271.63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d350backed Yes34c258.82$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-56.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16e6…9e8abacked Yes25c255$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.351428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked No59c250$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1024955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80d9…a756backed Yes18c230$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.42650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x549a…c866backed Yes35c216.54$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45ed…a147backed Yes10c215.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes9c215$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202015%3 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9b…3305backed Yes35c214.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62b3…3dd3backed Yes9c208.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5f…fc90backed No47c200.32$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e8…ca5dbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes8c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.58521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc83f…d705backed Yes38c197.37$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.