Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59f38489dd787db8e64178cd61e6b395409ad00b6d72ac279989ee1289a87e46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $591,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $641,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $591,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 18c | 17,156$3,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,084.11 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed Yes | 5c | 16,521$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.35 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +349.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 2c | 15,648$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.94 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 20c | 14,999$3,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,011.83 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 21c | 11,425$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,413.63 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 3c | 11,291$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.21 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,991$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 11c | 10,302$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.15 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…e51bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,977$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 1c | 7,701$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 24c | 4,817$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.82 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 3,390$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…2e70backed No | 50c | 2,955$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 13c | 2,938$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.88 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 37c | 2,540$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.07 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 3c | 2,296$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d7…1df0backed Yes | 3c | 2,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x609c…1862backed Yes | 3c | 2,100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,920$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.83 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…d95bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,834$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…eda2backed No | 67c | 1,506$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.63 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…9dc1backed Yes | 50c | 1,199$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,189$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…40a5backed No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5216…a91dbacked Yes | 17c | 846.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 6c | 749.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +131%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 742.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11bc…b2a5backed Yes | 14c | 693.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 5c | 672.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…8448backed Yes | 12c | 635.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…72e6backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…df88backed Yes | 4c | 550$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x786e…a308backed Yes | 15c | 546.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 5c | 513.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Yes | 4c | 501.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 474.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 16c | 470$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.27per pick | 10cpaid | +549.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 4c | 389.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…1550backed No | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 61c | 328.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 4c | 251.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde75…8596backed Yes | 6c | 228.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…0cf9backed Yes | 40c | 209.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…f1eebacked Yes | 5c | 205.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3d…bc7bbacked Yes | 5c | 204.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 14cpaid | +316%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…8671backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c300backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55d…7484backed Yes | 23c | 170$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 37c | 150.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed Yes | 21c | 148.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 50c | 147.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 77c | 138.56$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked No | 79c | 125.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa236…73f6backed No | 61c | 124.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb0…65f0backed No | 72c | 118.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b20…d8fcbacked No | 62c | 112.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 36c | 98.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1f…3537backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…b3a0backed No | 80c | 86.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6c…e10dbacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…7edbbacked Yes | 39c | 74.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…2b0abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…3416backed No | 61c | 42.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bd…b290backed No | 60c | 36.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…6619backed Yes | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…95b1backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…0951backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6464…5dcebacked No | 74c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 12-18?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.