Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a5f0a200762b328ac437fb42cbf6114d210d68f2d979c31c4fbd57152118eaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $438,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $518,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 78c | 84,764$66,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,569.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 0c | 20,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 21c | 9,762$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.93 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 6c | 7,496$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.87 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…e51bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,904$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 9c | 6,450$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.8 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 5c | 5,408$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 8c | 5,353$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.95 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 3,680$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,572$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…f073backed Yes | 2c | 2,409$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 23c | 2,321$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.62 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,259$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 3c | 1,786$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,681$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,307$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 4c | 1,270$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,236$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 22c | 1,068$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.54 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d33…065cbacked Yes | 2c | 971.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 822.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55a…5cc5backed No | 77c | 809.99$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +131%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 5c | 625.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712a…8ef9backed No | 80c | 625.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 560.96$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.01 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c300backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 376.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6f…6ac1backed Yes | 30c | 235$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…8670backed No | 72c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…9e8abacked Yes | 16c | 150.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…9bb4backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…509fbacked No | 75c | 136.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…cf28backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 74c | 87.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…60adbacked Yes | 26c | 54.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Yes | 24c | 51.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…6db6backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…650fbacked No | 78c | 17.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 12-18?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.