Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0506eeb64ebea7fe88467be8913487e1a685f4d1c27748e3335def3544bb329
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $408,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $424,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $408,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f28…1ceebacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 12c | 19,042$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.2 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes | 9c | 17,135$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 8c | 11,840$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.46 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 5c | 10,130$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.66 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 7,528$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.11 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…792bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…e51bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,485$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…8b37backed Yes | 1c | 4,238$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…10fdbacked Yes | 3c | 4,109$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 3,814$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.61 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc825…4530backed Yes | 14c | 3,500$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…4e0cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,414$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab23…d792backed Yes | 5c | 3,016$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 4c | 2,728$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 2,470$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 12c | 2,423$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.72 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,279$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 8c | 1,726$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,512$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e2…bd11backed Yes | 17c | 1,398$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +150.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 1,330$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.43 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…8c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,294$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…b9e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,119$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…4e63backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 13c | 898.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 5c | 877.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf315…e097backed Yes | 7c | 827.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…9491backed Yes | 3c | 781.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…dde6backed Yes | 3c | 729.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 5c | 713.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked Yes | 18c | 700$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 645.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 8c | 608$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 20c | 473.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e08…b2f5backed Yes | 7c | 460.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked No | 79c | 440$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 421.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 16c | 389.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 10c | 314.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…1ea4backed Yes | 20c | 308.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1409…ffb3backed Yes | 11c | 307.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0b…0445backed Yes | 5c | 304.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…f1eebacked Yes | 11c | 288.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…0088backed Yes | 7c | 280.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d33…065cbacked Yes | 16c | 242.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…c38cbacked Yes | 5c | 205.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…176cbacked Yes | 7c | 183.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes | 14c | 179.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0422…9bbabacked Yes | 23c | 158.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f0…92bcbacked Yes | 15c | 152.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…a9b3backed Yes | 9c | 137.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…ca5dbacked Yes | 11c | 130.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…a1abbacked Yes | 9c | 118.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…c2c9backed Yes | 11c | 115.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e0…0628backed Yes | 10c | 107.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…b0a3backed Yes | 11c | 103.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 15cpaid | +125%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 10c | 100.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3223…8f16backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…c6bcbacked Yes | 15c | 80.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…dec5backed Yes | 20c | 76.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…3492backed Yes | 21c | 68.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…f2c2backed Yes | 20c | 59.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…afd5backed Yes | 21c | 52.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…e9cfbacked Yes | 23c | 43.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 12-18?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.