TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$617,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$628,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $617,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd769…f90cbacked No74c60,212$44,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,503.3519535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No71c33,889$24,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,781.6628021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes24c27,037$6,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,376.1437745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes21c17,960$3,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,71758126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c15,904$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.054754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes24c10,489$2,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.2117231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes20c10,153$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.6763835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f28…1ceebacked Yes1c10,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3878…1ab8backed Yes1c9,922$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aee…5175backed Yes11c9,113$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes23c8,883$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.9387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff0…f8c1backed Yes1c7,973$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ed…10b4backed Yes6c7,946$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.946625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes29c7,685$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,231.4322550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6104…94e6backed Yes31c6,966$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdef6…f63abacked No73c6,921$5,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.82666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,842$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.581,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7bd…2a37backed Yes30c6,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,77030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b99…1cd7backed Yes5c6,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes21c5,982$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2701216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c5,750$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.5364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c5,681$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.066785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9507123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa765…ec70backed Yes37c4,880$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.971216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes4c4,149$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes1c3,026$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0114019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed No65c3,024$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.293633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe9…bb0abacked No60c3,000$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.7616729.3%49 W · 118 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed Yes37c3,000$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.144658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes28c2,882$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.57163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d8c…0290backed Yes33c2,872$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.88333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dba…b54dbacked No75c2,558$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.51675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+48.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes32c2,423$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7853542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x491b…aa57backed Yes1c2,350$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…c607backed No67c1,994$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.15560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes12c1,772$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220240%0 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1222…2aa7backed No75c1,638$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+88.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e36…c05cbacked No60c1,621$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes35c1,578$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.1640643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes9c1,506$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.533910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+155.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f64…792bbacked Yes3c1,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-86.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,329$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.312125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc449…e51bbacked Yes2c1,293$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb8…3236backed Yes2c1,160$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aae…319cbacked Yes8c1,125$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+79.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab5…bb25backed No63c1,105$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c1,087$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.545411.1%6 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2303447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeaa…fa16backed Yes35c999.79$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.93520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-71.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5230…e894backed Yes21c950.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19dd…8f24backed Yes30c835.65$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…1acdbacked No62c812.63$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.31475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+67.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes9c801.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.413998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No53c709.63$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.538625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c533.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.892999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b7c…4094backed Yes38c526.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x210c…d6c1backed No59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd86c…98aabacked No59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.054667.4%31 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d7e…e72ebacked Yes20c489.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-42%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc56a…85d7backed No74c412.65$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.161361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick64cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82e3…2151backed Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e08…b2f5backed Yes14c349.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87d…8cafbacked No59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.982759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5873…9533backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a01…6810backed Yes30c320$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed No71c314.36$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.365637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e1a…642fbacked Yes32c304.65$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ff…5e17backed No62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc842…922ebacked Yes11c290.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd653…782bbacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9da…f9debacked Yes16c281.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.262133.3%7 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+102.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97b1…5880backed Yes9c274.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc55a…5cc5backed No61c270$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes13c269.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked No75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.674242.9%18 W · 24 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes47c246.94$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed No75c240$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.12857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b71…5f5abacked Yes12c206.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3079…7b77backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x137e…5292backed Yes27c186.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c172$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041520%3 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+210%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe66a…a0a0backed No76c162.98$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.01933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c300backed No62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+59.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xadbc…13f9backed No63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…70e3backed Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe29e…0507backed No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b09…13d3backed No65c154.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.063100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe585…eb65backed No69c153$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.53366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2810…1131backed Yes23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+147.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0610067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead9…836ebacked No73c145.71$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49a8…c38cbacked Yes25c141.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31de…03ffbacked Yes22c136.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.922123.8%5 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e0…b5e1backed Yes9c132.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes31c130.27$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.756813.2%9 W · 59 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d33…065cbacked Yes37c126.75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.38100%0 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd395…3731backed No75c121.71$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+145.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.