TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe66a…a0a0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Movies, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2520%5 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.13
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+461%+$241.51
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+273.2%+$61.41
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$33.74
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$33.92
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$34.49
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+152.7%+$262.15
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+183.2%+$277.22
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$319.03
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$25.7
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$326.03
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$73.2
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$26.69
US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$46.5
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$18.86
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$73.5
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$377.13
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$41.18
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$15.05
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$51.36
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$103.49
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$23.94
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$45.88
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$29.34
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+39.9%+$7.8
All 25 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST2142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.66
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$220.17
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$145.18
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+77%+$286.53
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+53.3%+$23.6
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 23m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+171.3%+$30.58
Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+423.1%+$69.3
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$51.26
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+163.1%+$79.31
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$84.28
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$13.98
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.45
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 62m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$84.92
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 62m and 67m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+235.8%+$234.85
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 67m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10.02
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$970Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+154.3%+$1,495.92
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,045Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,045.35
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$213.49
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+61.1%+$8.09
Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 24m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+63%+$7.34
Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12.07
All 21 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76.72
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+303.9%+$68.06
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$14.23
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$109.19
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$12.19
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$88.97
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 19-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+280.4%+$77.59
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+31.5%+$39.01
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$181.73
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-70.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+88.6%+$23.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+83%+$58.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+36%+$3.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.