TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 24m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,131
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,131 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8657…a8b7backed Yes30c9,227$2,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,782.1420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,429$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.661,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No60c4,137$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.5826041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes21c3,740$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.733534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes1c3,206$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No75c2,843$2,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.0420049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb739…52f5backed Yes12c2,291$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb5c7…5510backed Yes28c1,820$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.861637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabb6…4c43backed Yes3c1,500$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ad…5aaabacked Yes23c1,168$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.57425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ef…be38backed No67c1,001$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.846028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes22c990.91$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.223639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…74d6backed Yes16c852.35$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.75714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e2…c125backed Yes43c811.07$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.362030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa59…5a55backed Yes26c780.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed No64c769.23$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.939545.3%43 W · 52 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No80c600$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1238040%32 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20529642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No74c484.49$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.972740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed No65c415.91$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.229735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dff…1f35backed No75c400$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67f2…6a72backed No65c367$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.45944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa056…ad1cbacked Yes26c366.56$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d2a…b7aebacked Yes43c334.59$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Yes35c315$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.752948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked Yes35c303$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.052227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes8c300$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.247328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No62c250$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962548%12 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a8a…2f60backed Yes21c241.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c232.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.842781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b49…c6debacked Yes17c227.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.615335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4413440.3%54 W · 80 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes16c195.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3422030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes34c191.67$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.482343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No79c180$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.828528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No75c175$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.53847.4%18 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No59c171.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8723041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc85…0554backed Yes15c153.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed No58c150$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.51573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.528524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes40c146.15$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.927735.1%27 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a01…56fdbacked No61c131.15$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+129.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf937…6b43backed No61c130$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.71353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5017…4daebacked Yes38c125$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0e…a433backed Yes42c113.93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a74…9043backed Yes14c111.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7de…bb18backed Yes29c104.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes11c102.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5496.1%3 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e9f…ba36backed No76c99.19$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+109.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd9f…e6c6backed Yes41c94.49$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be1…cb56backed No63c88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.562060%12 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+65%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xef14…bf21backed Yes37c88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.561656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-47.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes35c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.888345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No77c75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1720841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10f3…af65backed Yes27c73.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No68c71.11$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.694555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc327…89e0backed Yes24c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea9…f124backed Yes29c68.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf68…8682backed No69c65.54$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No72c65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.28332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9022…db5bbacked No59c64.65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.232055%11 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed Yes35c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.41637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.81457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes43c58.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-87.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07c1…e23cbacked No60c57.41$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.03650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+125.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes40c50.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.413423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0197…9b8dbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.57445.9%34 W · 40 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34e6…e673backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+303.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No58c49.43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.731553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes40c43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x69ba…1785backed Yes41c41.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed No61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.982552%13 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6b…d720backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27a7…36dcbacked Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No73c37.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No59c32.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.332739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No75c30.62$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6232639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe4f…e58cbacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.62737%10 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe66a…a0a0backed No61c18.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.342142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.