Movies · resolved market
Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb59badba5bbccf6be23eeaeebda450c9ad44f79efeb30aa8f6dcc409a27ec71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba0d…c462backed Yes | 2c | 1,229$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,185$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked Yes | 13c | 668$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed No | 79c | 361$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 78c | 315$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 20c | 301$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked Yes | 5c | 263$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 22c | 258$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked Yes | 13c | 207$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked Yes | 13c | 189$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 13c | 184$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked Yes | 13c | 165$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 13c | 163$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…8b59backed Yes | 32c | 158.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 21c | 157$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 25c | 149.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…e297backed Yes | 15c | 137.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed No | 76c | 118$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 24c | 118$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 104.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked Yes | 13c | 103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes | 13c | 92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 74c | 89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 80c | 87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea9…f124backed Yes | 33c | 59.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…b341backed No | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?this page
- Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?Yes won
- Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 21m?No won
- Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 24m?No won
- Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.