Movies · resolved market
Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf267621224fa8040f67b0662686f755a55230ab22d6eeaa7561b25b982aefcac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 50c | 2,593$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.88 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 75c | 530.45$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.58 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 70c | 425.84$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.31 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 50c | 344.61$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 15c | 339.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.18 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 78c | 258.16$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ad…5aaabacked Yes | 46c | 238.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8657…a8b7backed No | 65c | 168$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…c364backed No | 59c | 143.19$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 73.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 19c | 63.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…2d56backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7442…d193backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed No | 60c | 57.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 41c | 52.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ca…e7adbacked Yes | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 31c | 46.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 44c | 46.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?this page
- Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 21m?No won
- Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?No won
- Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 24m?No won
- Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.