TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc877…05b4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
494
Categories scored
36
Categories below 50
21

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT11540%46 W · 69 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 115 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$9.54
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 86°F or higher on March 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+79.5%+$8.85
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+32.4%+$4.34
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+165.4%+$20.39
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on March 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.06
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.58
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.93
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.56
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.06
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$5
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.96
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+83.7%+$14.44
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+95.5%+$19.54
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.14
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+92.5%+$10.22
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on January 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 53°F or below on January 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$23.81
Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.75
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10.21
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+115.8%+$13.42
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on December 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$15.4
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on December 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$12.16
Showing 25 of 115 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT6342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+45.5%+$6.88
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.7
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.68
Will the US strike Syria next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+63.7%+$7.78
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$21.6
US strikes Yemen by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+463.7%+$54.51
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+178.1%+$26.39
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$17.8
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$16.74
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$11.2
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$21.27
Next US strike on Syria on December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$10.23
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11.81
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+88.7%+$9.4
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$14.75
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$30.43
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$12.02
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+85.2%+$9.2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+194.7%+$34.59
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+93.2%+$9.65
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$18.53
Will Trump say "Rwanda" or "Congo" 12+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+130.8%+$22.67
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT4944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+74.3%+$9.74
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+115%+$14.19
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 25-29 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.75
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 70% and 75%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+139.8%+$29.15
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$11.45
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+55%+$7.08
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.3
Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.25
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will Jonas Sulzbach be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Brasil 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.91
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.91
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.36
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$29.91
Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$13.15
Will Keir Starmer say "Christmas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+247.9%+$38.24
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+166.7%+$23.24
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive between 30,000 and 40,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$15.48
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$11.29
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$23.75
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+90.8%+$28.56
Will Keir Starmer say "Healthcare" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$17.8
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT4346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+58.4%+$9.42
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.9
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$13.07
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+70.1%+$12.36
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$17.2
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.54
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+105.3%+$24.5
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20.48
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$16.88
Will Nina Gold (Hamnet) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.4
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25.2
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.8
Will Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Motion Picture – Animated at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.6
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$22.6
Will Ike Barinholtz win Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+81.8%+$9
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+40.8%+$5.8
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+75.4%+$8.6
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10.38
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$24.03
Will "A Cowboy Christmas Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+99%+$11.53
Will "David" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+79.6%+$13.3
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT3647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+129.2%+$27.06
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+186.9%+$27.36
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.56
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)backed Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.16
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.33
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)backed Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.59
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+94.8%+$17.52
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.84
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)backed Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.39
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.31
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)backed Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+191.5%+$51.22
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.11
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)backed Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$42.77
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.71
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$12.38
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.84
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$41.5
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+63.5%+$6.71
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.27
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.04
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.42
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+200.5%+$33.53
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.42
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.9
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+187.4%+$19.56
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT3441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will less than 5000 US flights be delayed on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.15
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.75
Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.85
Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will Piers Morgan be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.6
Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+140.5%+$36.13
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85%+$31.91
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+190.3%+$25.91
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+200.2%+$43.35
Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+301.9%+$44.93
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$12.79
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$24.02
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+72.2%+$27.1
Will the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act (H.R.5371) be signed into law by December 31 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?backed House · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$11.24
Will between 221 and 222 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$12.2
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+163.2%+$24.8
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+98.7%+$29.8
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+141.9%+$16.01
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$68
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+167.2%+$16.8
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+395%+$79.8
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $640b and $650b on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.07
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.73
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+257.1%+$28.8
Will "Crypto" be said during the next episode of the All-In podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.8
Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+43.9%+$12.2
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$19.8
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$15.08
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+122.7%+$16.52
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$12.71
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+115.1%+$21.4
Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$15.69
Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+94.3%+$17.79
Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+60.4%+$6.44
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$14.2
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+37%+$5.4
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$14.6
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Heat vs. Raptorsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.8
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+100.7%+$17.57
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.41
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+51.8%+$6.06
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$12.54
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.3
Spread: Heat (-18.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+183.6%+$30.16
Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 243.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+46.5%+$5.29
Cody Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$8.9
Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 18.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.8
Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.74
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 24.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.3
Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 3.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
LeBron James: Points O/U 19.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+92.8%+$12.7
Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.3
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.2
Julius Randle: Points O/U 23.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+56.3%+$7.2
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.8
Ryan Kalkbrenner: Points O/U 5.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$14
All 20 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.02
Will Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will Yolanda Flowers win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$4.5
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$42.9
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$87.67
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+67.2%+$32.16
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+76.5%+$8.67
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+47.1%+$6.4
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 20% on December 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+89.9%+$9.47
Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12.02
Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13.81
Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.08
Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.63
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+123.4%+$74.86
Will the Bank of Brazil lower the Selic rate after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+100%+$15
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$13.71
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10.33
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the December meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+88.7%+$9.4
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+44.9%+$6.2
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-68.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+68.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Alverca vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+44.9%+$4.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+46%+$12.6
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 12-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+47.1%+$19.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+84.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will New Glenn Flight 3 launch by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+92.3%+$9.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 142.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+77.5%+$10.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+69.5%+$8.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+35.1%+$4.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Hazem SC vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$23.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Algeria vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$11.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jared Bednar win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.