Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85928a933777a12c2efc5a8032c9cfa78497be55bc6c10f2bd41c4520afcb787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 7c | 3,900$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked Yes | 13c | 1,976$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d3…d029backed Yes | 3c | 1,053$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 889.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed Yes | 52c | 617$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 612.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 56c | 434.91$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.64 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 70c | 382.46$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.12 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…00ccbacked No | 42c | 304.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 32c | 300.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…a48dbacked No | 75c | 293.04$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 281.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 71c | 268.12$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 48c | 249.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8825backed Yes | 49c | 212.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 47c | 200.36$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.07 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 190.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 41c | 160.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 51c | 153.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed Yes | 10c | 153.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 54c | 130$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 24c | 122.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 117.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…a0a2backed Yes | 52c | 116.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 47c | 104.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 53c | 101.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 96.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 53c | 94.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 56c | 90.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 44c | 90.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed No | 59c | 90.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 36c | 89.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 78.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 17c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 52c | 76.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…1bb9backed Yes | 46c | 74.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 49c | 68.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 65.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 49c | 64.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…0627backed Yes | 59c | 64.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…2cd1backed Yes | 33c | 59.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 45c | 54.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…eaa7backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 37c | 46.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 42.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 40c | 36.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 42c | 36.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6d…9a4abacked Yes | 58c | 35.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 61c | 32.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 70c | 32.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 62c | 32.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…19abbacked Yes | 48c | 31.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 42c | 28.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 50c | 28.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 42c | 28.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Yes | 60c | 27.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097e…4fe5backed No | 43c | 27.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…c756backed No | 45c | 25.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 44c | 24.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…7063backed Yes | 54c | 20.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…beffbacked Yes | 61c | 20.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…f733backed No | 74c | 13.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.