Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e61d9a0d2a44e1fb77c4c30786b668a4ee4cd4b8ffe589f9fdc546a07cc34e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 889.08$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…0627backed Yes | 15c | 778$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Yes | 28c | 406.13$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 13c | 239.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 230.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 35c | 230.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 198.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 181.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 166.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 164.76$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 156.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 141.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 140.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 44c | 112.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 11c | 110.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 23c | 110.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 62c | 109.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 106.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 106.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 105.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 25c | 98.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 31c | 95.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 38c | 87.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 83.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 70c | 79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 72.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 32c | 69.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 24c | 59.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 57.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed No | 78c | 48.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…1bb9backed Yes | 34c | 47.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…a48dbacked No | 63c | 45.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 43c | 45.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 62c | 40.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 38c | 36.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 42c | 36.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…7797backed Yes | 44c | 34.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 44c | 31.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…f733backed No | 56c | 31.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 71c | 25.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 66c | 22.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.