Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77abd1e490dc72bd4031d8bc250ae71810cd74bfec3c1bb0372040043ba56e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 21c | 1,020$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.93 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 920.43$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 61c | 823.94$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.58 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 78c | 639.43$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.41 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 14c | 502.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 17c | 441.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 19c | 423.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 331.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…9d0dbacked Yes | 12c | 283.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 67c | 264.41$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 24c | 233.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 216.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…84dcbacked Yes | 19c | 212.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 19c | 192.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 18c | 148$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…e685backed Yes | 12c | 147.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 145.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 14c | 127.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 121.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed No | 62c | 113.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 32c | 93.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 36c | 93.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…0627backed Yes | 19c | 92.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 90.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 15c | 81.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 26c | 74.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 17c | 74.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 73.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 47c | 67.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 17c | 64.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…3d62backed Yes | 21c | 61.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 32c | 57.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 25c | 56.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 34c | 53.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 45.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 30c | 45.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 33.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9e44backed No | 66c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 53c | 22.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 62c | 21.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 80c | 20.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 68c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b3…52debacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.