Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33b123ef400d7bb100147776521b4584deadf715720c34bf372c1ac187b76c3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,711$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cb…0722backed Yes | 2c | 2,587$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…36e0backed Yes | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed No | 21c | 710$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c08…7307backed No | 50c | 508.68$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 14c | 357$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.02 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…42ebbacked Yes | 51c | 306.18$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…04aabacked Yes | 51c | 235.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 49c | 234.51$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6c1bbacked Yes | 53c | 200.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 199.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 48c | 160$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 47c | 144.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 10c | 120.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 42c | 105.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe052…3108backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked No | 46c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…7c17backed Yes | 53c | 88.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…81dbbacked Yes | 48c | 87.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6298…b860backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 48c | 81.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…b3aebacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked No | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acd…5cd0backed No | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…866abacked No | 45c | 57.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…dc7bbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…1a4dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed No | 43c | 46.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…bad6backed Yes | 54c | 46.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…a584backed No | 66c | 45.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 45c | 44.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 48c | 41.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…3f66backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4e…5bf4backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6063…22cebacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…53f2backed No | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…7abbbacked Yes | 56c | 26.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…d934backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.