TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x22e6…409fbacked No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4da5…e32ebacked No17c2,090$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked No19c1,504$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.755928.8%17 W · 42 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No9c1,042$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.368419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd39d…d227backed No15c978.1$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068f…866abacked No9c829.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8b…7677backed No15c570.83$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No11c532.93$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.332029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No13c523.92$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.318745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe052…3108backed No14c515.14$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes78c460.04$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.014557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed No18c456.59$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.182433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed No21c352.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3acd…5cd0backed No12c329.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed No36c232.7$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.77540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3819…6bd1backed Yes64c232.7$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No10c204.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.232236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf385…8f03backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32db…fcdcbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5096…c5b1backed No12c194.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d3…13cdbacked No11c187.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226a…c17dbacked No15c171.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7707…4fcbbacked No16c169.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No7c162.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d06…9aefbacked No16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x154b…4b90backed No11c142.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No15c141.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.161637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3520…88b9backed No25c135.07$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.950%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce38…a0dabacked No15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed Yes78c130$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.64562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d31…75d9backed Yes80c125.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.54771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x874e…9bcabacked Yes74c120$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a1…f3f7backed No17c119.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+95.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ca…dc7bbacked No20c111.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked No18c110.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d87…db7abacked No19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd538…04aabacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x593a…57b1backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70eb…635abacked No12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No16c95.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6111612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa982…6c34backed No16c90$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No18c77.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.915853.4%31 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e35…ec97backed No18c72.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e06…d668backed Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dec…81dbbacked Yes80c27.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick68cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x303c…4487backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.