TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9240…a7c7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
168
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Earnings, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Earnings at 55 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT6121.3%13 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+753.1%+$188.26
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$40.12
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+38%+$117.84
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$51.2
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$58.58
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$213.3
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+233.4%+$87.64
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$76
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$175
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$199.06
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+57.5%+$114.98
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+85.6%+$92.26
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$58
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.15
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.83
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.95
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$34.11
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$40.85
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$56.35
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$38.5
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$38.5
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+369.8%+$377.83
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$98
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$145.83
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST3354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FedEx say "De Minimis" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+40.8%+$10
Will Chewy say "Supplement" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will Chewy say "Humanization" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+104.7%+$23.95
Will Chewy say "Insurance" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will Adobe say "Qualcomm" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+85.3%+$30.29
Will Adobe say "Google Cloud" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+107.2%+$49.15
Will Adobe say "Black Friday" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$53.47
Will Chewy say "Automation" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+44.1%+$21.41
Will Snowflake say "Competition" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+85.2%+$26.02
Will Snowflake say "Retention" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$27.15
Will Snowflake say "Europe" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+81.6%+$22.92
Will Snowflake say "Azure" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+185.7%+$22.75
Will Snowflake say "Open Source" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+144.6%+$79.8
Will Dell say "PowerEdge / Power Edge" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+233.3%+$112
Will Dell say "RTX Pro 6000" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+89.4%+$23.6
Will Dell say "Nvidia" 5+ times during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+151%+$24.06
Will Dell say "China" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$25.54
Will Dell say "Windows 10" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Dell say "Dell Pro Max" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+97.8%+$19.83
Will Walmart say "OnePay / One Pay" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$60.74
Will Walmart say "Dividend" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+97.3%+$32.06
Will NVIDIA say "Automation" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+50.7%+$13.79
Will NVIDIA say "Self Driving" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+48%+$32.09
Will Celsius say "Input Cost" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$23.7
Will Celsius say "Vibe" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+43.6%+$5.53
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST1752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Rwanda" or "Congo" 12+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+106.2%+$30.9
Will Trump say "Cambodia" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+101.2%+$57.85
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+88.7%+$28.2
Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+92.3%+$19.2
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+64.8%+$17.7
Will Trump say "Malaysia" or "Kuala Lumpur" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$14.2
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$55.25
Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+61.9%+$39.88
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+62.4%+$40.35
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+44.9%+$12.3
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+48.9%+$25.02
Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$102.36
Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$42.36
Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$40.9
Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$32.36
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$26.06
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Dutch government be another combination?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$39.31
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+203%+$26.79
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$70.14
Will Keir Starmer say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questionsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+49.3%+$41
Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$26.5
Will Keir Starmer say "Liz" or "Truss" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+180%+$80.35
Will Keir Starmer say "Russia" or Russian" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 4+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+57.7%+$26.87
Will Keir Starmer say "Liz" or "Truss" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$34.9
Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 4+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+50%+$22.33
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$54.1
Will Keir Starmer say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questionsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+108%+$71.59
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$92.5
All 13 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Trump say "NATO" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$49
Will Trump say "Eight War" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+218.6%+$78.9
Will Trump say "Golden Dome" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$132.9
Will Trump say "China" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$49.5
Will Trump say "Nuclear" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$61.2
Will Trump say "Ukraine" 5+ times at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$49.4
Will Trump say "Thank you" or "Please" 18+ times at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$59.66
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$145.25
Will Trump say "Mexico" or "Mexican" 5+ times during the medal presentation on December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+525%+$184.8
Will Trump say "Kamala" during the medal presentation on December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$14.42
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ during the medal presentation on December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$26
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST1020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50.76
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$30.51
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+270.4%+$160.6
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$54.52
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$80.4
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+135.8%+$83.49
Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$105
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$94
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$299.64
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+41.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jaguars vs. Raidersbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+47.1%+$25.6
Chiefs vs. Billsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Saints vs. Ramsbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$14
All 3 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Troy vs. Southern Missbacked Troy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+37%+$37.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.13
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.