TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,679 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43b7…609ebacked Yes2c1,041$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes36c738.09$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.7111323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes37c533.51$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes40c496.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.183560%21 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe29f…0b9bbacked No65c489.85$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40c4…adbebacked No61c488.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.191050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed No64c418.79$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.793528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-48.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No64c394.08$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.133666.7%24 W · 12 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes39c360.31$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5735819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes37c354.53$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.443429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed No61c278.24$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.139153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes34c260.49$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.845812.1%7 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb195…6f85backed Yes39c255.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100147.1%1 W · 13 L-6.2wins-0.44per pick51cpaid-84.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes42c249.96$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.984050%20 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes43c231.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002070%14 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc833…0234backed No61c224.52$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.581030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes38c222$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3613738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No63c206$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1416961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes12c201.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4514945%67 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes43c200.09$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.584143.9%18 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed No61c185$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.153100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+125.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0520…89c2backed Yes42c173.81$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No55c169.97$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4915523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x27ed…9f1dbacked No61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.931070%7 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.39per pick31cpaid+80.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x37a8…8b4dbacked No64c158.19$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.19650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed No63c157.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.922277.3%17 W · 5 L+6.9wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+103.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes40c149.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.494852.1%25 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No60c148.31$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3217839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed Yes41c142$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked No61c142$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes36c136.92$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.127939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes42c127.68$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5812524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e92…9ec0backed Yes45c122.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked No61c119.59$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+112.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7881…5c15backed No58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.45540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed No52c100.92$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.922755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x823c…5046backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.41353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+48.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x472c…a000backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.62147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdd…f158backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.38per pick48cpaid+578.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8efb…f34fbacked No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a34…3079backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91a8…2db7backed Yes38c99.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55dd…8702backed No65c98.77$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.779100%9 W · 0 L+4.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+130.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes45c90$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.91752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea6…87b9backed No56c89.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.832755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+79.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x579b…4a2bbacked Yes57c88.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe13a…6bb5backed Yes39c86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed No58c85.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.832147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed No64c85.67$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.852751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb870…e5c9backed No59c84.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.34366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c83.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d45…324abacked Yes41c81.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.213360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No63c79.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.332166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes45c75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.751643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac96…7ec2backed Yes41c73.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301921.1%4 W · 15 L-6.2wins-0.33per pick54cpaid-43.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6191…e505backed No59c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa9…7097backed Yes39c69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa526…34aabacked Yes46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7483…96a6backed Yes39c65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77ec…4f9cbacked Yes39c63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5730%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34b…2f86backed No59c62$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes40c61.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6014…5a58backed No59c60.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22e5…81acbacked Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e02…c5f2backed Yes39c56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked No61c55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+113.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f49…9cc3backed Yes46c53.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8e…2c6abacked Yes48c52.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef0…a35abacked No58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc39b…5754backed Yes39c51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74a7…69e4backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e0…2225backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf04e…2773backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188100%8 W · 0 L+3.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+80.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194450%22 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22ca…ef7fbacked Yes36c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x500f…d27fbacked Yes40c49.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.191070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+54.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e19…abd4backed Yes41c49.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9396…5916backed Yes43c48.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0a…9034backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c47.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5367841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x591b…807cbacked No58c43.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No49c41.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.420143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f97…a349backed Yes49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42e9…776ebacked No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccb…e4eabacked Yes55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb51…c971backed Yes39c39.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.592250%11 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+78.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed No61c39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+112.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf447…3fe7backed Yes39c39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15b7…7fd0backed Yes39c38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ba…91c0backed No56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2df6…1464backed No56c35.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No45c35.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.561,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed No57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.09683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fe9…a400backed Yes39c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b43…31cebacked No58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa796…dddebacked No58c34.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.23450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f5f…99d3backed Yes39c34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f6…4498backed No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.26425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee56…3b86backed No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.