Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa44e866170f16c3f5557279c06a5118fede3cc85dd069a2a9ab5805d5ad1f300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 65c | 1,235$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.16 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 37c | 535.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.74 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 29c | 416.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.76 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked No | 55c | 360.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 33c | 360.1$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.05 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 31c | 325$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.34 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked No | 32c | 317.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed No | 34c | 290.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.12 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +6.9wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 38c | 280.27$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 72c | 276.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 73c | 275.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…682abacked No | 29c | 260.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…8f03backed No | 62c | 250$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 69c | 226.91$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.47 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 65c | 221$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked No | 29c | 209$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 35cpaid | +197.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 71c | 205.02$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31c2…f1d3backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47f…d792backed Yes | 69c | 195$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 64cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 39c | 185.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.38 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 42c | 167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 62c | 161.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -6.2wins | -0.44per pick | 51cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed No | 28c | 160$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 31c | 140.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Yes | 71c | 126$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 105.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 67c | 105.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…f325backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked No | 24c | 93.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +68%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Yes | 72c | 81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab2…8464backed No | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 64c | 77.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed No | 27c | 74.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Yes | 68c | 73.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Yes | 72c | 72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…7ec2backed Yes | 56c | 71.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -6.2wins | -0.33per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 28c | 67.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 61c | 65.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…f517backed Yes | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Yes | 71c | 63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda5…e220backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 42c | 58.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked Yes | 72c | 54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f6…4498backed Yes | 76c | 52.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…c1ddbacked No | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked No | 37c | 48.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…5f1cbacked Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c4…ff56backed No | 32c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf7…3033backed Yes | 71c | 42.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc6…593dbacked Yes | 73c | 41.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…5046backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8603…0bbabacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 36.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4686…4545backed Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…d85fbacked Yes | 73c | 34.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.9wins | -0.44per pick | 71cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481e…d896backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…6aaebacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Yes | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked Yes | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -8.2wins | -0.48per pick | 71cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe582…b6dcbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0741…2951backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…557fbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…f696backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…cf64backed Yes | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Yes | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crown" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Dancing" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Erdogan" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Handsome / Attractive" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine / Russia" 5+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.