TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,431 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes41c3,366$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.393528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-48.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No67c1,220$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.853080%24 W · 6 L+8.6wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+60.4%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xca9a…dc46backed No53c1,100$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed No76c827.57$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.622445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes40c499.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.987632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes48c432.89$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.4513639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes39c406.75$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.572055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40c4…adbebacked No59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1641050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes28c399.21$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.295812.1%7 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed No56c378.99$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.59580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+103.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked No57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.881181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+40.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab2…8464backed No64c331.58$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.584100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+185.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes43c282.24$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3449023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes43c282.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.333429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked No70c264.89$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806333.3%21 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes43c225.45$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.051833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No76c196.95$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2710153.5%54 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes43c190$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.54852.1%25 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27ed…9f1dbacked No56c179.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.141070%7 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.39per pick31cpaid+80.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No55c178.39$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.414050%20 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes45c178$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.524143.9%18 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed No59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.492070%14 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed No60c167.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes38c166.71$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8420143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed No62c160.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.642277.3%17 W · 5 L+6.9wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+103.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes43c159$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6835819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes9c156$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.114945%67 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed No58c155.96$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.51145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed No77c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+54.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4f7…f6f2backed No51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No60c139.44$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.78944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed Yes36c131.02$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.92166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes47c116.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.689153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed Yes43c104.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.843666.7%24 W · 12 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x051d…7679backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55dd…8702backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409100%9 W · 0 L+4.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+130.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No51c99.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1940…f54abacked Yes49c99.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+68%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes42c98.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.56650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes45c93.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.361752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e19…abd4backed Yes43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes44c89.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.615523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6fd2…b705backed No59c87.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c83.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9567841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea6…87b9backed No60c82.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.952755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+79.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked Yes34c79.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.011747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee33…9a55backed No51c77$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c77$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8e…b3fabacked No54c73.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63e1…802abacked Yes48c70.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes45c66.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1312524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe1…5514backed Yes44c64.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85da…13b9backed No60c61.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.593100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+154.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22ca…ef7fbacked Yes41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.640%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa0f…ed09backed No55c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa769…8a2abacked No59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1216961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf04e…2773backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.358100%8 W · 0 L+3.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+80.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+65.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac96…7ec2backed Yes40c49.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201921.1%4 W · 15 L-6.2wins-0.33per pick54cpaid-43.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes48c49.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.591450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes48c47.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9885725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xcc58…1dffbacked No55c45.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.45520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d01…c5abbacked Yes46c43.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x591b…807cbacked No58c43.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No54c40.18$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4940828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27b1…ed2bbacked No53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes42c39.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.481,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f00…189bbacked No60c35.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ad…2704backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x762f…ef27backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Yes46c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2518929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked No54c24.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.062250%11 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8e…fbacbacked No58c21.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd6f…e887backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6113…9d20backed No52c19.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.59425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13f2…68c5backed No53c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x823c…5046backed No52c19.78$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.491353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+48.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed No59c19.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.922751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed No59c18.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+120.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.