TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine / Russia" 5+ times during Syria President events on November 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,972
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,972 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73dc…d8ddbacked Yes50c2,005$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4252…88cdbacked Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf36…c9eabacked No50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d43…b370backed No50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ad…5a0fbacked Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccc2…2198backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bb…33edbacked No50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be2…b651backed No50c1,990$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes8c513.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.85812.1%7 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed No40c348$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.84100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+121.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37a8…8b4dbacked Yes62c325.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked No70c283.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.942259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes27c279.15$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3720143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes30c256.88$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes54c256.75$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.043941%16 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes30c250.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.243429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No42c244.76$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.3713360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed No40c244$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+119.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27a0…18d1backed No68c215.65$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.65366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf385…8f03backed No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582055%11 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed Yes43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.52755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.114945%67 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes48c193.79$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.821643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No45c181.82$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003666.7%24 W · 12 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No46c180$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.623560%21 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No68c178$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.353080%24 W · 6 L+8.6wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+60.4%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes38c170.14$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0135819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca9a…dc46backed No45c159.77$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes41c154.39$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.37939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No55c152$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1135355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed No67c148.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.782277.3%17 W · 5 L+6.9wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+103.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c144.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.011,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed No40c143$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+125.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No59c140$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.422333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes54c120.69$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.312524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.054757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No39c114.18$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0315523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x325a…dbb4backed Yes22c109.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-72.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7881…5c15backed Yes57c104.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8655…0853backed Yes60c102$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f01…548cbacked Yes50c101.13$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes29c99.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+120.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No48c95.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.633357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e19…abd4backed Yes43c92.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x823c…5046backed No38c90$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.41353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+48.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5935…b8dabacked Yes60c88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.830%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a4e…e3a4backed Yes60c88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No60c85.66$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9317449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc07…e9f2backed Yes60c83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5956…e127backed Yes60c79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63e1…802abacked Yes58c77.46$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked Yes60c76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes29c75.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.954372.1%31 W · 12 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xac96…7ec2backed Yes29c68.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201921.1%4 W · 15 L-6.2wins-0.33per pick54cpaid-43.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc3b3…0d89backed Yes60c67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.230%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4e1…b3c6backed Yes45c66.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09db…7384backed Yes60c64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No39c61.41$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90e…7e26backed Yes50c58.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.02728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed No40c56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed No40c56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+119.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked No40c54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick35cpaid+197.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6014…5a58backed Yes60c51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3445…4737backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x303c…4487backed Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x472c…a000backed Yes58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267067.1%47 W · 23 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xb959…b18fbacked Yes51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e2c…e2fdbacked No42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.62475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+108%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bb7…8745backed Yes60c46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x591b…807cbacked No46c43.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.883100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc833…0234backed Yes31c43.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.481030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fa0…aa66backed No69c43.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.48955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes35c37.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.12837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7322…ab65backed Yes58c36.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c56…9774backed No56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce4…36a6backed No43c35.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+355.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe240…fe10backed Yes57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes45c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.718929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed Yes58c34.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205541.8%23 W · 32 L-8.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa796…dddebacked Yes59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe260…6168backed No44c33.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf233…8127backed No67c32.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.84650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ef0…a35abacked No47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes38c29.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1985725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1940…f54abacked No56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.791866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+68%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0f49…9cc3backed Yes43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7483…96a6backed Yes60c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.440%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf21a…0751backed Yes60c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7bd…d82dbacked Yes60c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes49c20.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.144050%20 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x271c…af47backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf04e…2773backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.48100%8 W · 0 L+3.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+80.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3d94…8b7cbacked No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…fb05backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7f…a00cbacked No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+65.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8407…45d2backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13f2…68c5backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca1…48f5backed No66c19.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.