Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating" during Syria President events on November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3d42df547d3ae4efa40d81b448b8239057ac01dd12deabcc92702e46a371723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 52c | 770$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 44c | 747.61$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.84 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 44c | 427.87$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.32 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 58c | 372.68$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.33 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +8.6wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 80c | 232.68$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…8664backed No | 77c | 213.89$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 80c | 190.36$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed15…14dfbacked Yes | 53c | 189.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 56c | 174.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 62c | 170.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 54c | 168$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…0771backed Yes | 63c | 158.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 52c | 149.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…2f0bbacked Yes | 48c | 121.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2cfabacked Yes | 47c | 113$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 46c | 111.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…28e8backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 56c | 84.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6c…68a2backed Yes | 50c | 80.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 46c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…7ec2backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -6.2wins | -0.33per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 46c | 58.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 56.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…5046backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 44c | 43.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +68%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd3…6781backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…ca9bbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf50…4397backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 44c | 32.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd07…919abacked Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec12…9d86backed No | 55c | 20.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe582…b6dcbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…e83cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating" during Syria President events on November 10?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crown" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Dancing" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Erdogan" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Handsome / Attractive" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine / Russia" 5+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.