TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating" during Syria President events on November 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,946
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,440

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,946 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcc90…00aebacked No52c770$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.681457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes44c747.61$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.843528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-48.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes44c427.87$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3222846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No58c372.68$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.333080%24 W · 6 L+8.6wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+60.4%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked No80c232.68$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.541833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x552e…8664backed No77c213.89$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.893100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5680%0 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No80c190.36$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5521751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed15…14dfbacked Yes53c189.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No56c174.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.994050%20 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No62c170.28$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.416650%33 W · 33 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No54c168$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0813738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9b…0771backed Yes63c158.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No52c149.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.997939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8640…2f0bbacked Yes48c121.37$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a99…2cfabacked Yes47c113$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.111540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes46c111.17$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6113342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf658…dcfebacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4413639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457067.1%47 W · 23 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d9c…26dfbacked No56c84.3$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+87.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc6c…68a2backed Yes50c80.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes46c70$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.512524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac96…7ec2backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301921.1%4 W · 15 L-6.2wins-0.33per pick54cpaid-43.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed No57c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.59153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes46c58.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5535819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c56.53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x823c…5046backed No55c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.561353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+48.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes44c43.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3420143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1940…f54abacked Yes47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+68%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7bd3…6781backed Yes53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb868…ca9bbacked Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf50…4397backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed Yes44c32.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.163770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No53c32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153666.7%24 W · 12 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x569f…5561backed Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.93756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+49.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Yes43c24.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.752433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd07…919abacked Yes51c23.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec12…9d86backed No55c20.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe582…b6dcbacked No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e9…e83cbacked No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.