Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on November 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b68473923a8f584e8e4914f73671a027ee233b92089f9259f21a4eaa673d1b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 71c | 560.79$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f30…6b5cbacked Yes | 56c | 479.2$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…14afbacked Yes | 71c | 472.24$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 46c | 434.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.83 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…c84bbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 29c | 350$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 63c | 315.24$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +8.6wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 46c | 310$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…1011backed Yes | 71c | 300.79$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 29c | 290.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.56 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 29c | 290.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.53 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 70c | 230.11$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 45c | 222$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 54c | 186.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -6.2wins | -0.44per pick | 51cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked No | 48c | 183.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…2773backed No | 65c | 183$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 65c | 153.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 74c | 134.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6a…13f7backed Yes | 71c | 126.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +199.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 66c | 125$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 42c | 113.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 27c | 109.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 28c | 103.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…fd8dbacked No | 29c | 103.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +148.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…5046backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa843…8f3fbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…bf45backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 33c | 95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 71c | 89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed No | 26c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +5.2wins | +0.65per pick | 22cpaid | +353.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f6…4498backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…c4fdbacked No | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ad…0a36backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…7ec2backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -6.2wins | -0.33per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x271c…af47backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 64c | 46.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 31c | 33.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 63c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…3b86backed Yes | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…6b74backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…d85fbacked Yes | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.9wins | -0.44per pick | 71cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b61…9240backed Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…1c86backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -8.2wins | -0.48per pick | 71cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b6…6b22backed Yes | 70c | 20.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8603…0bbabacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during Syria President events on November 10?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crown" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Dancing" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Erdogan" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Handsome / Attractive" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating" during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine / Russia" 5+ times during Syria President events on November 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.