TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x593e…8cc6backed No40c8,322$3,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,020.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+68.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa47b…a496backed Yes64c4,253$2,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed Yes5c2,290$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.559153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked No20c1,925$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.413215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes69c1,834$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.983528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-48.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes54c1,200$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6477644.7%34 W · 42 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes47c1,196$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.475812.1%7 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No45c1,124$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.4212650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No18c1,109$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.1512152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No19c1,087$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.4735819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed No76c1,048$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.837640.8%31 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+2.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No17c1,007$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.4617839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9da5…61d5backed Yes51c850$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed No15c776.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.441942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed No33c763.89$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.9580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+103.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ee2…8c80backed No72c754.1$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes2c746.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.46520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes79c739.07$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.41435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f30…6b5cbacked Yes59c674.98$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.7350%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes37c633.96$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.3680%0 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e4f…1f21backed Yes3c614.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596f…0914backed Yes3c581.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes21c553.77$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.753941%16 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26522846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No17c499.84$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.174050%20 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No79c496.35$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.483076.7%23 W · 7 L+6.7wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x11de…21d7backed Yes23c490.33$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.214353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ce…26b0backed Yes62c486.72$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No11c473.69$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.4949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c462.06$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.741,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7d…5769backed No48c440.92$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.78450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+60.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf04e…2773backed No39c428.73$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.48100%8 W · 0 L+3.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+80.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed Yes76c423.3$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.943933.3%13 W · 26 L-7.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa63e…1b97backed No25c404.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.45475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+143.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed No25c403.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.412277.3%17 W · 5 L+6.9wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+103.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x1940…f54abacked No28c352.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.11866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+68%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No16c339.96$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.562437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c6e…5884backed Yes54c334.66$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes9c281.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b0…eb65backed Yes23c276.88$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20df…c787backed Yes29c272.7$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes78c250$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1952642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No17c221.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.2413360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+53%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+120.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8a…fd8dbacked Yes56c187.62$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.07580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+148.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x743d…9cebbacked No23c183.89$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes79c180.7$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.121855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a99…2cfabacked Yes53c174$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.221540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f9…e1e2backed No18c160$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+465.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes36c160$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.54450%22 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4686…4545backed Yes78c154.89$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-50.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No16c139.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5915523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed No27c127$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.295541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No66c120.77$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.86650%33 W · 33 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked No35c114.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.453348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes50c111$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1320143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No19c110.36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.393429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes78c109.09$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0917755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed Yes77c108.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.922864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98c3…6ca1backed No22c108.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddd…53ebbacked No32c103.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.64944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+67%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc11e…f325backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8a2…973cbacked Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d6…be1fbacked Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x053e…6422backed No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.53per pick33cpaid+183.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes62c99.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed Yes78c99.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.992454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No17c94.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No20c91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38de…5e07backed No23c86.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb820…ad71backed Yes66c80$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Yes70c80$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40c4…adbebacked Yes80c77.5$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes53c74.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.713342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa221…7588backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270c…f377backed Yes23c70$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.156541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes80c70$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5611850%59 W · 59 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88cc…cd1abacked No37c60.87$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.142100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+136.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1091…a259backed No19c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No24c59.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.592763%17 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+62.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc164…d0e3backed No79c50.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.631070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe87a…b968backed Yes41c50.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3614945%67 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb903…eabfbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe010…ca20backed Yes80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed Yes27c45.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.346342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked No76c45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.86333.3%21 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe9d…a3c8backed No35c42.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.861020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac96…7ec2backed Yes74c40.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301921.1%4 W · 15 L-6.2wins-0.33per pick54cpaid-43.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x28d9…17bbbacked No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+65.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc36a…be63backed Yes63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.28860.2%53 W · 35 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes76c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.41per pick55cpaid-80.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes50c33.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.784427.3%12 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ed…9d8ebacked Yes77c32.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd2f…e46abacked Yes70c31.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2140%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa0f…ed09backed Yes69c30.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.08955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe77c…ca91backed Yes61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-49.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.