TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xedf6…cf40

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
210
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 58 out of 100; worst Middle East at 37.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT4146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+237.8%+$70.4
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$539Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+65.4%+$352.6
Will Trump say "Good Friend of Mine" or "Friend of Mine" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$331
Will Trump say "Cook" or "Jensen" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+88.7%+$70.5
Will Trump say "Manhattan" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+84.4%+$26.2
Will Trump say "Build your own" or "Make your own" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+64.6%+$15.36
Will Trump say "High IQ" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$104.66
Will Trump say "Hell" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$329.16
Will Trump say "Hottest" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+163.2%+$65.65
Will Trump say "Tariff" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+85.2%+$48.44
Will Trump say "Big Tech" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+86%+$83.5
Will Trump say "Genius" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+88.4%+$105.48
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+146.5%+$166.4
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+25%+$40
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,523Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+33.2%+$506.1
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$364.32
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$225
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+64.6%+$157
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$303.4
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$198
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$147.24
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.94
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,633Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+98.2%+$3,568.38
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.34
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT3528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-48.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
Middle East — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$743Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$742.98
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$152
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$204
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,447Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,446.5
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.25
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$569Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$569.09
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,385Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+42.3%+$586.71
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$866Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+84.8%+$733.99
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$261
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$528Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$528
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+44.9%+$62
Will Donald Trump say "Please" 7+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,372Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$1,372.39
Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,643Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$1,643.31
Will Donald Trump say "Obliterated / Obliteration / Obliterating" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$328.84
Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" during Syria President events on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+108.3%+$114.92
Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+55.1%+$148.79
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,269Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$1,268.98
Will Donald Trump say "Handsome / Attractive" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$117.88
Will Donald Trump say "Eight wars" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,013Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$1,012.62
Will Donald Trump say "Israel / Gaza" 6+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$804Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$804.16
Will Donald Trump say "Crown" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$356.33
Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$683Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$683.09
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+115.2%+$117.2
Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.08
Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.27
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT3250%16 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,134Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,134.2
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,060Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$371.6
Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$210.38
Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+59.4%+$67.08
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,874Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+49.2%+$922.67
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$185.25
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+119.4%+$260.67
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+25%+$2.92
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$585.22
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$291.45
Will Trump say Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$187.46
Will Trump say Young people during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.36
Will Trump say Fake news during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.18
Will Trump say TikTok during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$41.89
Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.89
Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$774Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+45.6%+$353.27
Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+37%+$16.28
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$886Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+111.1%+$984.21
Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,229Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$312.62
Will Trump say "Big Balls" or "Coristine" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$275.14
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+83%+$223.36
Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+47.4%+$111.32
Will Trump say "DOGE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+122.6%+$186.1
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.79
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$318.25
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$708Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$707.96
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$666Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$666
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$6,601Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$6,600.98
Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$61.55
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,346Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,346.38
Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.61
Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$207.08
Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+426.2%+$574.66
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+188.7%+$447.27
Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$590Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+123.9%+$730.67
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$68.2
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$774Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+102.4%+$793.3
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$71.34
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+37.8%+$137.82
Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,246Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+38.4%+$478.43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$206.11
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+55%+$124.25
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$141.75
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$47.09
Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$882Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+38.7%+$341.82
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+61.6%+$275.24
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.56
Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+100%+$100
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+79.2%+$244.43
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$404.03
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT2236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will anyone say "Bastard" during House of the Dragon E7 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.48
Will anyone say "Dragon" 20+ times during House of the Dragon E7 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+170.5%+$88.82
Will anyone say "Death" 5+ times during House of the Dragon E7 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$138.25
Will anyone say "Council" during House of the Dragon E7 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.63
Will anyone say "Treason" during House of the Dragon E7 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.54
Will anyone say "Surrender" during House of the Dragon E7 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.35
Will anyone say "Death" 5+ times during House of the Dragon E6 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+39.4%+$80.85
Will anyone say "Prayer" during House of the Dragon E6 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$48.75
Will anyone say "Grace" 20+ times during House of the Dragon E6 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.75
Will anyone say "War" 8+ times during House of the Dragon E6 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+25%+$16
Will anyone say "Prophecy" during House of the Dragon E6 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.8
Will anyone say "Peace" during House of the Dragon E5 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$45.57
Will anyone say "Prayer" during House of the Dragon E5 S3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$12.3
Will anyone say "Dragon" 20+ times during House of the Dragon E5 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.91
Will anyone say "Raven" during House of the Dragon E5 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.51
Will anyone say "Queen" 20+ times during House of the Dragon E4 S3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.03
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-12.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$175.26
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $12.5-14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.85
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$230.01
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$141.17
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $11m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,132Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,131.73
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+37%+$70.6
All 22 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
UFC — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$436
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+400%+$1,525.01
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$270
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)backed Weili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Ankalaev vs. Pereirabacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$967Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+233.4%+$2,256.43
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$450
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveirabacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
UFC 317: Royval vs. Vanbacked Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$126.54
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malleybacked O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$249.4
Bautista vs. Mixbacked Mix · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$620
Burns vs. Moralesbacked Burns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.51
Aldo vs. Zahabibacked Aldo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$216.97
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$492
Du Plessis vs. Stricklandbacked Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Makhachev vs. Moicanobacked Moicano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$148.6
Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$213.41
Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.26
Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+42.1%+$101.4
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+141.5%+$215.03
Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+78%+$96.4
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.4
Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+116.8%+$265.39
Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$39.6
Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$174.37
Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+85.6%+$380.6
Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$70.4
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$692Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$692.25
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+45.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+70.2%+$140.43
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,100
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+248.3%+$732.57
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 10.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$85.19
Spain vs. Austria: Spain O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$270.1
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$778Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+59.3%+$461.13
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$314.29
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$364.29
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$175.68
All 12 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+85.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+162.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$974Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+162.4%+$1,581.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+92.3%+$92.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+50.8%+$158.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye West launch his own blockchain before April? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,947Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,947.38
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.