Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f27c19f01df05c00c448ab34f1242bcc2b5081b9c8fcf11dc3e699c86fc612e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 12c | 1,859$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.29 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 17c | 1,612$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.57 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed No | 19c | 1,576$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 14c | 1,400$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.51 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 14c | 798.52$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 13c | 771.39$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…494dbacked No | 18c | 736.82$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 20c | 672.49$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.79 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 14c | 611.31$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 18c | 549.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 17c | 526.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 14c | 524.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…f488backed No | 11c | 445.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed No | 14c | 364.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…9875backed No | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 16c | 273.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 18c | 268.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x91a0…7ccfbacked No | 19c | 204.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 19c | 202.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 15c | 199.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbab0…2b4abacked No | 16c | 175.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda28…3347backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 14c | 123.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…0187backed No | 14c | 108.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1630backed No | 15c | 106.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…abf8backed No | 20c | 102.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec7…7a26backed No | 15c | 100.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117e…659cbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…c36abacked No | 16c | 94.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…57f5backed No | 16c | 71.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…92a1backed Yes | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6a…99b0backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 80c | 14.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.