Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d3f37fff435366f97c1fac8a6105c71efae9bb6731fa24d9d25073b94eff657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4434…5602backed No | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f70…d701backed Yes | 80c | 1,600$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 15c | 1,443$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.83 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf47…ae97backed Yes | 80c | 1,400$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 79c | 734.93$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.13 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 18c | 715.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed Yes | 73c | 688.95$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 27c | 554.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 23c | 529.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.39 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 28c | 379.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 69c | 356.5$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.69 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 21c | 309.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 30c | 299.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Yes | 78c | 257.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 36c | 253.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 77c | 195.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 79c | 194$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 77c | 193.09$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…542ebacked No | 30c | 191.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 80c | 184$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 73c | 160.48$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 26c | 155.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 146.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 18c | 143.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…e881backed Yes | 72c | 139.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 15c | 120.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 19c | 102.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…9875backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 21c | 99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…722bbacked Yes | 80c | 93.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 29c | 68.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 35c | 65.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…13a7backed Yes | 72c | 61.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…c82ebacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…5e66backed No | 32c | 47.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72a…0501backed Yes | 77c | 42.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 80c | 31.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3035…1f37backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 71c | 28.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4a…3ec6backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x175e…1ec9backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c60…ea1dbacked Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x601c…d7f9backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…3e73backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…b321backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.