Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93b32d502fc0f6ba94136ddac083f2db9b076596d43c5610b5d54a6c5738d299
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 13c | 821.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 52c | 600$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 51c | 585.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 57c | 455.37$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.52 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 58c | 365.58$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.77 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 47c | 325.5$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.52 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 46c | 270$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 56c | 261.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 52c | 217.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 41c | 214.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 41c | 127.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 44c | 112.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4531…25c7backed No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 55c | 82.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 49c | 74.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 61.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…6154backed No | 44c | 58.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed Yes | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 41c | 56.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…c799backed Yes | 55c | 54.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 49c | 47.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…ba6ebacked No | 43c | 43.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4372backed Yes | 60c | 41.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 33.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x894a…3d3cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda28…3347backed Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 62c | 32.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 44c | 27.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…3079backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 23.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f3a3backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0616…219ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.