Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7615f722e05bd5c2f77e9aa4efe4b2c0a50879b2099559acb1d91bd67b0baab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 28c | 1,671$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.44 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 67c | 1,076$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.2 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 76c | 904.1$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.1 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…4692backed Yes | 61c | 822.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 22c | 705.53$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 35c | 539.74$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 28c | 508.68$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.23 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 47c | 436$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.84 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 62c | 366.53$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3667…75ffbacked No | 53c | 312$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…0094backed Yes | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…e40cbacked No | 34c | 290.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…be2bbacked No | 34c | 290.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…664dbacked Yes | 73c | 275.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed No | 37c | 273.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed No | 34c | 248.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 39c | 234.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…8978backed No | 57c | 215.05$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 32c | 214.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 25c | 213$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked No | 28c | 206$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 29c | 201.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 64c | 186.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…8792backed No | 55c | 182.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bf…8349backed Yes | 67c | 179.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 33c | 155.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 72c | 149.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 26c | 144.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 39c | 127.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 38c | 117.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 32c | 110.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…2ff8backed No | 60c | 109.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 65c | 109.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931b…07c5backed Yes | 58c | 105.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e8…b58ebacked No | 28c | 103.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No | 49c | 102.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4531…25c7backed No | 50c | 100.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…5c9dbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…de91backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a062backed No | 31c | 95.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 52c | 95.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 52c | 78.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 68c | 68.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…8de7backed No | 31c | 65.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e4…f323backed No | 34c | 58.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4347…62bcbacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…2b16backed Yes | 71c | 56.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked No | 36c | 55.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked No | 27c | 54.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…c36abacked No | 55c | 54.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 75c | 53.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed No | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Yes | 73c | 47.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…2bccbacked Yes | 68c | 44.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked Yes | 71c | 42.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…494dbacked No | 36c | 42.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…638dbacked Yes | 67c | 40.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…6381backed Yes | 68c | 40.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 32cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09cf…e8f8backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…d690backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Yes | 49c | 39.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…b799backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…3e73backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc2…2c7bbacked No | 33c | 33.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 31c | 33.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 65c | 33.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed Yes | 65c | 31.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 41c | 31.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed No | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…b1d1backed No | 38c | 30.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…d452backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +144%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…7ecabacked Yes | 68c | 29.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4a…3ec6backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c4…7bd7backed No | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…aef6backed No | 47c | 26.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 52c | 23.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 45c | 23.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 70c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…c82ebacked Yes | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.