TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,289
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,289 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf797…0bf2backed No28c1,671$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.4418745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c1,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes67c1,076$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.26750.7%34 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes76c904.1$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.112649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9437…4692backed Yes61c822.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.333100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No22c705.53$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.421022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed No35c539.74$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.131414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-64.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked No28c508.68$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.232035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed Yes47c436$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.843360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+25.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes62c366.53$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.944360.5%26 W · 17 L+6.0wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3667…75ffbacked No53c312$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0446…0094backed Yes67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.51366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f6…e40cbacked No34c290.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e90…be2bbacked No34c290.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2213…664dbacked Yes73c275.72$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.72560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9195…72a4backed No37c273.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-48.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed No34c248.2$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No39c234.59$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.491637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9e…8978backed No57c215.05$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-82.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No32c214.44$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.881643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No25c213$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2518445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb295…3a9fbacked No28c206$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-82.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed No29c201.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.694562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked No32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5819638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb195…6f85backed Yes64c186.1$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.11050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68fe…8792backed No55c182.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89bf…8349backed Yes67c179.05$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No33c155.92$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.377343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes72c149.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4212619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No26c144.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.642412.5%3 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed3…07c9backed No39c127.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-46.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No38c117.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.64226.2%11 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No32c110.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3513673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x3291…2ff8backed No60c109.31$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-63.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes65c109.25$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.424772.3%34 W · 13 L+9.0wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+37.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x12b9…8529backed Yes65c106$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.11060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x931b…07c5backed Yes58c105.48$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.99933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e8…b58ebacked No28c103.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe931…138bbacked No49c102.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4531…25c7backed No50c100.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88f1…5c9dbacked No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e7…de91backed No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed Yes64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes50c99.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508332.5%27 W · 56 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked No35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355844.8%26 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a40…a062backed No31c95.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes52c95.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.45771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+36.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf920…4d4ebacked No52c78.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.42728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No36c71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.561,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes75c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.55653.6%30 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes68c68.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-41.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae82…8de7backed No31c65.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e4…f323backed No34c58.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4347…62bcbacked No35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+67%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x736c…2b16backed Yes71c56.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe898…769fbacked No36c55.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202520%5 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-58.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb957…b8acbacked No27c54.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb22f…c36abacked No55c54.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-3.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes75c53.2$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+48.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.57100%7 W · 0 L+3.9wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+171.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268839.8%35 W · 53 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+141.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x051f…66b0backed No36c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+77.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Yes73c47.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e1…b3c6backed No33c45.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a1c…2bccbacked Yes68c44.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccb…e4eabacked Yes71c42.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.353100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe05…494dbacked No36c42.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-68.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c7e…638dbacked Yes67c40.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.38520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2422…6381backed Yes68c40.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.28517.6%15 W · 70 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick32cpaid+94.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x09cf…e8f8backed Yes67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc238…d690backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed No38c39.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.23per pick54cpaid-42.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes62c39.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe766…404dbacked Yes49c39.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.351050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f1e…b799backed Yes76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.47475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb94f…3e73backed Yes67c37.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked No57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-53.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddc2…2c7bbacked No33c33.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No31c33.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.475225%13 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes65c33.52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7310330.1%31 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed No46c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.18966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed Yes65c31.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.19728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No41c31.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.932657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+43.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3149…9762backed No35c31.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9534…b1d1backed No38c30.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0487…d452backed Yes67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+144%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3576…96eabacked Yes67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.854100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b5b…7ecabacked Yes68c29.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb4a…3ec6backed Yes70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3d14…ee01backed Yes72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c4…7bd7backed No56c26.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2d…aef6backed No47c26.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked Yes52c23.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.391729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes45c23.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0732029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes70c21.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5710145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…c82ebacked Yes69c21.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.