Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc570be5d2c875ee55d2fb1e61fa54de264bc768e42f3c6351f6cb4e6f2bb0000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 58c | 487.08$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 50c | 332.6$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 50c | 278.24$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.76 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 270.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 46c | 229.6$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 47c | 219.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 190.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 47c | 173.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 59c | 140.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…6ff9backed Yes | 54c | 122$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 54c | 103.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 55c | 90.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4531…25c7backed Yes | 56c | 90.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 54c | 83.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 59c | 73.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 53c | 72.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 48c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…72e9backed Yes | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce9…24f0backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 44c | 46.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 40c | 46.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd3…929bbacked No | 47c | 42.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…28febacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe632…aa26backed No | 76c | 39.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…655dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 46c | 37.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 43c | 35.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda28…3347backed No | 57c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe72…94cebacked Yes | 52c | 34.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…1a1abacked Yes | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…4322backed Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…1c86backed Yes | 50c | 29.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…0becbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.