Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b61cfa0ab5488a59388a005f89b7b78952bc95a16ebb85d4d02042c2949f244
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 29c | 616.9$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 33c | 532.42$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.05 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 32c | 529.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.24 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 4c | 437$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 76c | 361.36$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.37 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 26c | 350.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.55 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 67c | 314$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.38 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…c621backed Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 68c | 254.93$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ab07backed Yes | 68c | 251$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 28c | 187.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…9875backed Yes | 67c | 161.8$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 27c | 144.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 35c | 139.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 124.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes | 75c | 108$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 24c | 95.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 67c | 88.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c0…0ae5backed Yes | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 29c | 79.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 31c | 77.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…7010backed Yes | 74c | 76.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…92a1backed Yes | 70c | 71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 55c | 60.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked No | 34c | 58.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 26c | 43.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 69c | 42.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef3…2cd8backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…05babacked Yes | 76c | 39.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a27…45babacked Yes | 77c | 35.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb754…7463backed No | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…ad73backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…a3c3backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…3adfbacked Yes | 70c | 29.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…7aafbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b45…b6edbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…4d9ebacked Yes | 70c | 18.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…b321backed Yes | 71c | 17.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…c7e3backed Yes | 71c | 16.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 71c | 16.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…5b36backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ea…5c03backed Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?this page
- Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Aussie" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 4+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
- Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Where are you from" during Australia PM events on October 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.